Nigeria’s political terrain has been heated up this past weeks with a series of high-profile defections that are reshaping the race towards the crucial 2027 general elections.
From the seismic political shifts in Delta State to the strategic defection of Kawu Sumaila, reactions from key political figures like Abdullahi Ganduje, Atiku Abubakar, and Umar Damagum are providing clear early indicators of emerging battle lines.
PDP’s stronghold under siege
Delta State, traditionally a stronghold of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), witnessed a significant political tremor as several influential politicians defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC).
The defectors, including sitting legislators and grassroots mobilizers, cited dissatisfaction with the PDP leadership at the state and national levels.
The growing internal wrangling, allegations of imposition of candidates, and unresolved power-sharing disputes were major triggers.
Experts believe this wave of defection has not only weakened the PDP’s grassroots networks in the Niger Delta but has also energized the APC’s efforts to make inroads into regions once considered impenetrable.
Sani Abdullahi, a Kano based political analyst said, “For a region vital to national elections because of its voter population and oil revenue, these defections could affect future calculations heavily.
Kawu Sumaila’s move
AbdulRahman Kawu Sumaila, a former senior aide to President Muhammadu Buhari and a notable political figure from Kano State, officially dumped the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) for the APC last week.
Sumaila’s defection is seen by many Kano residents as a major blow to the NNPP’s ambitions, especially as he commands considerable influence in Kano South.
His move, according to those in the know was not impulsive; it was a strategic recalibration based on the evolving political map and the realities of the 2027 elections.
Responding to concerns that APC might sideline former NNPP stalwarts in favor of older party members, Abbas Adam Abbas, Senior Special Assistant on Media and Publicity to Senator Suleiman Abdulrahman Kawu Sumaila, told DAILY POST that they have no such fears.
According to Abbas, “Look at the magnitude of developmental projects in his area and how he is loved by his constituents. The APC would definitely not sideline him in the coming elections.”
He emphasized that the NNPP had lost a great politician in Sumaila, highlighting the Senator’s popularity and developmental impact in his constituency as a major political asset for the APC.
Ganduje’s response: A victory lap with warning
Receiving Kawu Sumaila into the APC fold, the national chairman of the party, Abdullahi Ganduje, wasted no time in projecting the defection as a validation of APC’s growing acceptance nationwide.
Ganduje, himself a former governor of Kano, described Sumaila as a “grassroots general” whose inclusion would fortify the APC in Kano and beyond. However, Ganduje was also quick to caution against complacency, emphasizing that political loyalty must be rewarded with inclusion, or risk sowing seeds of future defections.
Analysts believe this dual message was not lost on party members but that it reflects Ganduje’s awareness of the fragile alliances that typify Nigerian politics.
Atiku’s reaction: An embattled PDP scrambles for stability
Former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, a leading figure in the PDP, responded swiftly to the Delta defections.
In a public statement, Atiku acknowledged the internal grievances but urged party members to stay united, promising reforms that would “heal divisions and restore the confidence of Nigerians.”
But Audu John, a strong PDP member from Benue lamented that Atiku’s response, while conciliatory, also exposed the PDP’s deepening crisis.
He said, “His call for patience and restructuring suggests that the party is aware of looming dangers but is struggling to present a coherent, convincing roadmap to its foot soldiers.
“With Atiku almost certain to contest in 2027, every defection now weakens his prospective presidential base,” he said.
Managing crisis with caution
Acting PDP National Chairman, Umar Damagum struck a careful and almost diplomatic tone in reacting to the week’s events.
While condemning the defections as acts of betrayal, he refrained from outrightly attacking the defectors, instead blaming “external manipulations” for the losses.
Damagum’s soft approach indicates that the PDP leadership is seeking to avoid further hemorrhaging of its ranks.
Sources close to the party say that quiet reconciliation moves are ongoing behind the scenes, especially in Delta and Kano.
Yet, the visible lack of a firm hand may embolden others contemplating a defection, especially if internal restructuring promises do not materialize quickly.
The 2027 elections: Early tremors amid shifting alliances
Ibrahim Hassan, a writer and political analyst based in Kano told DAILY POST that the past weeks’ political maneuvers are more than isolated incidents, “they are early tremors signaling deeper realignments ahead of 2027.
“In the South-South, APC’s gains in Delta could signal a broader push to erode PDP’s dominance in the oil-rich region, traditionally a kingmaker in presidential elections.
“Meanwhile, in the North-West, Kano remains a political prize, and Sumaila’s move suggests APC’s strategy to consolidate early in the region.
“For PDP, the defections are a warning bell. Without urgent internal reforms and power rebalancing, the party risks entering the 2027 race weakened from within.
“For APC, the gains are encouraging but come with the heavy task of managing the diverse ambitions of its new entrants’” he sounds.
Nigerian politics has entered a phase where every movement, handshake, and statement is calibrated with 2027 in mind.
The race has unofficially begun and only the well-organized will survive the coming storms.