In the high-stakes theatre of Nigerian politics, ideology is a rare guest; pragmatism, however, always has a front-row seat. As the 2027 electoral map begins to take shape, a familiar but intensifying phenomenon is sweeping through the state capitals: the ‘political migration’ of opposition governors to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). Naija Times examines the layers of these strategic jumps, looking at the hidden price tags of loyalty, the divide and conquer tactics used to destabilise opposition camps, and why the ruling APC is working overtime to ensure that by the time the next first ballot is cast, the opposition is not just weakened, but entirely erased.
In recent months, Nigeria’s political landscape has witnessed a renewed wave of defections by sitting governors and influential political actors into the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). To the casual observer, these defections are often framed as a quest for synergy with the centre or bringing development home. But for those who understand the Machiavellian mechanics of the Nigerian power structure, the truth is far more complex.
Insiders say that it is a calculated survival game played with a deck of billion-naira incentives, promises of federal protection, and the looming shadow of second-term ambitions. By the way, there is no guarantee, according to recent media reports, that defecting politicians will automatically earn second term tickets.
While defections are not new to Nigeria’s politics, the timing, frequency, and strategic importance of the actors and states involved have raised fresh concerns about the underlying motivations, and the implications for democratic competition ahead of the 2027 general elections.
At the centre of the debate are claims of financial inducements, promises of increased federal government presence, second-term calculations, internal party crises, and allegations that the very crises used to justify defections were instigated by the APC itself.
In a highly centralised federal system like Nigeria’s, access to the centre often translates into political survival. Governors facing fiscal pressures, rising debt profiles, or unpaid salaries are especially vulnerable. Aligning with the ruling party offers the promise of smoother relations with Abuja, fewer bottlenecks from federal agencies, and preferential treatment in the allocation of infrastructure projects. Call it “strategic partnerships” if you like.
For some governors, the calculation is simple: being in the opposition can be expensive. Beyond money, defecting governors are often assured of greater FG presence in their states such as federal roads, rail lines, security installations, and appointments for indigenes into strategic positions.
In a political environment where visible projects are currency for re-election, the promise of federal infrastructure can outweigh ideological loyalty. Defection, in this context, is sold as putting the state first, even if critics argue it weakens opposition politics and accountability.
Federal Might: Security, institutions and silent pressure
There are persistent claims that defecting governors were wooed with billions of naira, either through direct financial support or via favourable federal interventions such as debt relief, special intervention funds under the guise of ecological funds or infrastructure support, or accelerated release of statutory allocations and project funding.
While difficult to prove on paper, the sudden influx of federal liquidity into a defecting governor’s state often tells its own story. These funds rarely come with labels; they may appear as accelerated budgetary support, special intervention releases, security votes quietly boosted, or federal agencies suddenly discovering urgent projects in a governor’s state.
Roads long abandoned find fresh funding. Long-stalled contracts are revived. Federal appointments begin to flow. For governors battling salary arrears, mounting debt, or restive political structures at home, such financial oxygen can be irresistible.
Beyond money lies something even more potent factor: federal might. The federal government controls the police, the military, and the intelligence services. It oversees anti-corruption agencies, revenue authorities, and regulatory bodies with sweeping powers.
Experts say that while these institutions are constitutionally independent, Nigerian political history is replete with examples of how they can become instruments of pressure and coercion. Governors in opposition parties frequently complain of selective investigations, sudden audits, and heightened scrutiny once they fall out of favour with the centre.
Defection, in contrast, often brings relief – investigations slow down, tensions ease, and political breathing space returns. This dynamic has created a silent but powerful message: being outside the ruling party can be dangerous; being inside it offers protection and relevance.
Second-Term Ambitions, Political survival, crises and fear as a political currency
In Nigerian politics, defection is rarely an accident. It is often the final act of a carefully choreographed drama – one driven by ambition, fear, and the relentless instinct for survival. For a first-term governor, the most important election is not the one that brought him to office; it is the one that will determine whether he stays. For governors eyeing a second term, defecting to the APC is increasingly seen as an insurance policy. The ruling party controls federal security apparatus, electoral influence, and the broader political narrative.
While some governors fear becoming targets of federal pressure or blackmail, including investigations by anti-graft agencies if they remain outside the ruling circle, others worry about internal sabotage during elections. Defection, therefore, becomes a survival strategy rather than an ideological shift.
According Omonon Jeremiah, a political scientist, re-election in Nigeria is brutally expensive and structurally complex. “It requires money, party cohesion, security cooperation, and institutional neutrality – factors largely influenced by the federal government. Hence, governors outside the ruling party often find themselves fighting uphill battles – weakened party structures, delayed federal support, and an environment that feels increasingly hostile,” she said.
“Defection to the ruling party, in this case, the APC, therefore, becomes a strategic move to neutralise risk. By joining the party, governors hope to secure the goodwill of Abuja, avoid institutional headwinds, and present themselves as insiders rather than targets. In this calculus, ideology is expendable; continuity in office is not,” Jeremiah added.
Another recurring factor is the story of internal division. Governors often cite unresolved crises – factionalisation, court cases, or hostile party structures – within their parties as reasons for crossing over. But opposition figures frequently counter this narrative, alleging that many of these crises were instigated or deepened by the ruling party through infiltration, parallel congresses, or the encouragement of rebel factions.
The Trailblazers: Notable defectors and their reasons
To understand the current trend, Naija Times takes a cursory look at some of the high profile politicians that paved the way and why – their reasons followed the same script.
Engr. Dave Umahi (Ebonyi): Considered one of the most notable defections. Umahi left the PDP for the APC in 2020, citing marginalisation of the South-East within the PDP and the need to align with the centre for development. Critics argued the move was driven by personal ambition and access to federal power, a claim reinforced by his appointment as Minister of Works
Prof. Ben Ayade (Cross River): His move from the PDP to the APC in 2021 was justified on developmental grounds, particularly the need to attract federal projects and as a reaction to losing control of the PDP structure in his state to rival factions.
He famously stated that he joined the APC to “join hands with the President to build the country,” but the subtext was clearly about internal party survival. His move fractured his political base and exposed internal contradictions, eventually contributing to APC’s electoral struggles in the state.
Bello Matawalle (Zamfara): Despite being a beneficiary of a Supreme Court ruling that gave the PDP the state, Matawalle defected from the PDP to the APC in 2021, amid severe security challenges in Zamfara.
Like Ayade, he argued that aligning with the ruling party would help tackle banditry in his state, but detractors insisted the move was more about political protection than the internal PDP crises – a move that effectively silenced his loudest APC critics in Zamfara State.
These cases reveal a pattern: defections are rarely about ideology; they are about access, ambition, and control.
Kano in Focus: Pressure on Abba Yusuf
Kano State with its massive voting population remains a prized political asset. Currently, all eyes are on the Governor, Abba Kabir Yusuf of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) and a loyalist of Dr Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso.
Sources within Kano politics revealed that there is sustained pressure on Governor Yusuf to defect, as the ruling APC is reportedly working aggressively to reclaim the state, leveraging both internal party tensions and federal influence.
Kano is a major voting bloc. In any general election, the numbers from the state can make or mar presidential ambitions. This makes Abba Yusuf a key target, as the pressure on him to defect to the APC has reached a fever pitch. The logic is clear: securing Kano significantly boosts any party’s national electoral arithmetic.
The APC has realised that without holding the executive seat in Kano, their path to 2027 becomes significantly vulnerable. Therefore, their pressure tactics include:
Legal Goading: Following the rollercoaster of tribunal and appeal court rulings that initially threatened the Governor’s seat, the APC is perceived to be using the security of tenure as a dangling carrot. The message is simple: Join us, and your seat is safe. Yusuf wants a commitment that he will be given a second term ticket before he makes the move.
The Ganduje Factor: With the former APC National Chairman, Abdullahi Ganduje, also a former governor of Kano State, there is a personal and tactical mission to reclaim the state.
Division in the NNPP: Rumours of friction within the Kwankwasiyya movement are being amplified. Pro-APC elements are working to convince Yusuf that he can only truly be his own man if he steps out from under Kwankwaso’s shadow and join the ruling party.
So far, Governor Yusuf has resisted the overtures, but the pressures underscore a broader APC strategy – weaken the opposition strongholds by co-opting sitting governors, especially in high-vote states. Political observers opine that if Governor Yusuf eventually bows to the pressure, it will signify the near-total erosion of opposition politics in the North. It is very likely that the defection plan would soon be consummated as Yusuf visited President Bola Ahmed Tinubu at Aso Villa recently.
The governor’s movement to the APC may offer short-term political gains, but it also reinforces a system where power gravitates endlessly to the centre at the expense of ideological politics, party discipline, and democratic accountability without any regard for the people.
How they stand
APC now has 28 governors; PDP – 4; Accord Party – 1 (after the defection of Governor Ademola Adeleke of Osun State from PDP); APGA – 1; Labour Party – 1, and NNPP – 1.
The gale of defections began with Governor Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta State, who was joined by the former governor of the state, Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa. Then, Umo Eno, governor of Akwa Ibom State; Duoye Diri, governor of Bayelsa State (he is already in his second term – amazing!) and Agbu Kefas, governor of Taraba State, also joined the bandwagon by moving from PDP to APC.
Pertinent questions
Therefore, as 2027 approaches, the key questions remain: are these defections acts of political pragmatism or symptoms of a democracy struggling to find its bearings? How will APC manage its own disagreements when they arise? What are the implications of these defections for our democracy and political landscape in the absence of a strong opposition? Is it true that when politicians defect to APC, all their “sins” would be forgiven?