On January 29, 2025, within rapidly geopolitical changes in West African region, three landlocked countries namely Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, members of the newly created Alliance of Sahel States (AES), declared their withdrawal from the most influential bloc – Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
The first implication was that 2025 marks the 50th year of the establishment of ECOWAS. Undoubtedly, it will simultaneously remain in history of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) as the period of their exit from the 50-year-old regional bloc, established by the Treaty of Lagos in May 1975.
Perhaps, ECOWAS has been fractured with uncertain future. On the other side, the AES will seemingly grow in strength as republics of Côte d’Ivoire, Chad, Ghana and Senegal have shown signs of unswerving support for the newly-created security organisation in the region. Despite broader criticisms and emerging challenges, AES has the capacity to forge expected integration and to tackle existing diverse obstacles while navigating further for strategic external collaboration.
The Alliance of Sahel States (AES) was established on September 16, 2023 with the signing of the Liptako-Gourma Charter by the States of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. These three countries share the cross-border region of West Africa and the Sahel called “Liptako-Gourma” from which it derives the symbolic name of the Charter. It is a collective defense bloc aimed at countering any military intervention or any external threat including terrorism and with the ambition of economic integration.
Since last year, the AES has focused on structuring projects in the fields of energy, infrastructure, transport and food security. The trio aims to create an economic and monetary union, as well as its own currency which should be based on the natural resources of the member countries in the Confederation.
The collective initiatives undeniably are at the formative stage, fostering consciousness on structuring operations and functional directions notwithstanding the multiple roadblocks from ECOWAS. That however, worthy to indicate here that particular concern emerging from different regional organisations and the African Union underscores the rising assertiveness of AES.
At a glance, Burkina Faso is a driving force, while Mali and Niger have, in practical sense, shown the pathways for evolutionary influence as well as shaping a codified dynamism to hold the alliance in form towards achieving its primary security objectives and economic development aspirations.
For over a year, their joint effective strategy has been working, and the collective divorce from ECOWAS late January 2025 was an irreversible factor, that was based on the fact that ECOWAS has unprecedented weaknesses, combined with historical record-breaking failure in its mandate to maintain regional security.
In short, the rising insecurity situation has undermined regional cooperation, set the stage for dissatisfaction among the member states. With the sudden withdrawal from the 15-member ECOWAS, it is understandable Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have attained the collective independence, and prepared to form this new forward-looking regional partnership bloc popularly referred to AES.
ECOWAS and African Union’s Reactions
Reactions from both the ECOWAS and African Union (AU) were ‘business as usual’ characterized by official administrative statements. Late January after the three French-speaking West African States officially exited, the Peacekeeping and Regional Security Commission of ECOWAS said the remaining members tentatively had agreed to ‘keep ECOWAS doors open’ by recognizing national passports and identity bearing the bloc’s logo from the countries, to continue trade under existing regional agreement, and to continue diplomatic cooperation with the countries.
The statement noted that the withdrawal of Burkina Faso, the Republic of Mali and the Republic of Niger from ECOWAS has become effective on 29th January 2025. While the Regional Security Commission has set up a structure to facilitate discussions on these modalities with each of the three countries, its official statement categorically noted the following:
In addition to above-mentioned developments, the Political, Peace and Security Council (PSC) of the African Union (AU) headquartered in Addis Ababa, capital of Ethiopia, has also expressed high-level concern over the deteriorating standing of ECOWAS as a regional bloc and the security situation in West Africa region.
The AU, of course, raised an unequivocal condemnation of the final decision and withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger from ECOWAS. But factually, the AU’s reaction was distinctively similar, in terms of administrative and bureaucratic wording of the official statement, mostly for the sake of filling in the space, under-estimated the long-term repercussions and impact on the developments in the region.
Reaffirming solidarity by the African Union with ECOWAS in enforcing its mandate and high-lightening the importance durable peace, security, and sustainable development as enshrined or stipulated in the documents. The AU employed such phrases as ‘respecting the sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity’ contained their established documents of ECOWAS.
Endowed Natural Resources
In any case, understanding economic potentiality and sustainability is crucial at this stage. The economic potential is huge, as Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger put together holds tremendous untapped resources.
According to various sources, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger territorially share borders together and are landlocked countries in West Africa, in the Sahel region. They are geographically bio-diverse, which includes plentiful reserves of gold, manganese, copper and limestone, and other invaluable natural resources. The land mass is huge for traditional agriculture, but public infrastructures are poorly developed across the region of their location. Predominantly, the system of state governance combined with gross lack of finance are the main obstacles to sustaining development.
As known in these African countries, the French adopted a form of indirect rule, allowing existing native structures to continue to exist within the colonial framework of governance. But now reawakening to the neo-colonial administration and opaque system of government control have a significant impact on current political development. Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, to some considerable extent have the human capital.
The 2024 estimates of population have revealed that Burkina Faso has 22.5 million, Mali which is the eighth-largest country in Africa, has approximately 21.9 million people while Niger has 26.5 million. The UN Development Program Report (2024) ranked Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger as the Sahel countries with the lowest category of development index in the world.
The future growth may only be sustained by the exploitation of natural resources and that must necessarily be tied to the development of the economy, building infrastructure and focus on reducing poverty in these French-speaking West African countries.
Future Economic Implications
AES has the capacity and commitment to address development shortfalls. Several development initiatives were already taken in this direction to stimulate the economic sectors, particularly in the priority areas of agriculture, livestock, health, and energy infrastructure.
Burkina Faso currently stepping efforts in agricultural sector, while Mali and Niger restructuring roles of foreign players in exploiting mineral resources suc as gold and uranium. This allows greater economic and political autonomy in order to strengthen their sovereignty. Perhaps, they will further have the opportunity to pursue more economic policies in line with the existing realities dictated by the political environment and to bolster aspirations of maintaining stability across their landlocked region.
Obviously, the AES is getting oriented towards multi-polarity, which is intended to be a more inclusive and concerted approach, where different countries and regions work together to find common solutions. By pursuing the principles of the multipolarity, world, the AES could engage in pragmatic win-win partnerships to advance their interests for the purposes of economic development and growth, and stability.
The AES collective pledge further requires making collaborative efforts and, in a systematic manner, work towards sustainable development, find better chances for practical solutions to existing economic deficiencies. Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have to adopt strategic positions, first, in West Africa, and generally in Africa.