President Bola Tinubu’s recent allegory of “a sinking ship” when referring to the gale of defections that was emptying the vessel of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has turned out to be a perfect reflection of the existential threats to the survival of the PDP.
“You don’t blame people bailing out of a sinking ship when there is no life jacket,” as the president succinctly put it. The PDP ship, currently being steered, apparently by a drunken captain (literally or figuratively), has run into great turbulence.
The inebriated captain, after hijacking MV PDP at sea, like a pirate, has succeeded in making a shipwreck of that rickety vessel. And as President Tinubu pointed out, there are no life jackets for the obviously terrified voyagers on that ship.
As of the time the president made his allegory on June 12, 2025, there was only one available big ship on standby for a rescue mission – MV APC. However, the situation on the ground has changed dramatically since then. Another ship, MV ADC, has now joined the rescue mission, competing keenly with MV APC for stranded voyagers on board the unfortunate MV PDP.
The unveiling on July 2, 2025, of a coalition of opposition politicians, converging on the platfom of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), may have altered permutations ahead of the 2027 general election. The APC is undoubtedly way ahead in the race towards 2027 for the fact that the question as to who flies the party’s presidential flag, is settled.
In principle, Tinubu already had the ticket and only waiting for it to be officially stamped. This gives the APC a measure of stability and surefootedness to run the race. So it seems.
But the emergence of the ADC appeared to have jerked the ruling party out of its hitherto complacency. Another ship has come to moor at the harbour, offering an alternative to the crowded APC vessel. The threat is real and the ruling party is feeling the heat.
The birth of the coalition, for whatever it’s worth, could change the face and texture of opposition in the political landscape. The ruling party can no longer take things for granted, as the coalition came through a steam birth and started gathering momentum post partum.
APC’s Six, ADC’s Half Dozen
The ruling APC and the new challenger on the bloc, ADC, are the same in character and form. The only difference being that one is in power while the other is hungry for power. Peopled by politicians displaced from their various political parties, the new coalition may not offer Nigerians anything new. The current loud histrionics from leaders of the coalition, were the same fat bones the APC baited the Nigerians with when they were desperate for power in the build up to the 2015 general election.
More so, not a few of the main actors in the pre 2015 APC “rescue mission” drama, are back in the ADC with the same old anthem. A number of them are individuals who were smoked out of the APC at various points. For instance, Atiku Abubakar, who is one of main pillars in the present ADC coalition, was one of the key players who sold the APC to Nigerians in the 2015 elections.
There is a long list of Atiku’s co travelers in the ADC coalition who defected from the PDP to the APC in 2013, but who also got smoked out of the ruling party along the line. In this group are former Sokoto State Governor Aminu Tambuwal; his Kwara State counterpart, Abdulfatah Ahmed; former Transportation Minister, Rotimi Amaechi; former Sports Minister, Bolaji Abdullahi among many others.
Also in the ADC coalition, are some founding members of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) that collapsed their structures into the APC. The list includes former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai; former Attorney General, Abubakar Malami; former SGF, Babachir Lawal; among many others who have yet to come out in the open.
The interim chairman of the coalition, David Mark and its national secretary, Rauf Aregbesola, appear to be the only first time defectors from their original political parties. While Mark recently defected from the PDP, Aregbesola broke ranks with the APC a few months ago.
The presidential candidate of the Labour Party in the 2023 poll, Peter Obi, has one foot in the new coalition as the LP continues to struggle with leadership instability. There are many other potential defectors from the existing political parties, including the APC, who may be waiting in the wings to see how things pan out in the new party before joining.
Cracks In ADC Over Presidential Ticket
Already, cracks are beginning to deepen in the new alliance as some prominent individuals among the promoters are already scheming for the party’s 2027 presidential ticket. Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Rotimi Amaechi, Aminu Tambuwal are among the names being touted to be scheming for the ticket.
The camps of Atiku and Obi have already taken the battle to the public and their loyalists have resorted to media war over who should get the ticket. In a smart move, Obi had, a few days ago, announced his willingness to run for a single term if given the ticket.
This, obviously, was in response to calls for the nation’s presidential seat to remain in the south till 2031, and return to the north thereafter. The unwritten north-south rotational arrangement has become a major deciding factor in the quest for the presidency.
After Muhammadu Buhari’s eight years (2015 to 2023) stakeholders, especially in the south, have continued to insist that they should also be allowed to have eight years, ending 2031 before the seat can revert to the north.
However, Atiku and his loyalists appear to have a different idea about the rotational arrangement. The former vice president had contested for the seat in 2019 and 2023 on the platform of the PDP but lost to Buhari on the two occasions. Atiku will be past 80 years before the 2027 poll. Many insist that with his age, he is way down the hill.
They point to the associated geriatric strains and cognitive decline that often hobble individuals at that stage in life. But the serial presidential contender appeared unmoved by such sentiments. His actions and utterances, all the while, indicate a strong resolve to take another shot at the presidency.
In a counter move, Obi’s fanatical supporters in the Obidient movement, mostly of the young population, have sounded a warning; that the former Anambra State Governor risked being abandoned by the movement if he accepts anything short of the presidential ticket. His running mate in the Labour Party during the 2023 poll, Datti Baba-Ahmed, has also joined the fray. He has mounted the rooftop, drumming support for Obi for the coalition’s 2027 ticket.
And while Amaechi has indicated interest in the ticket, he doesn’t seem to have taken any rigid position on the matter. Tambuwal’s interest in the race still remains in the realm of speculation as he has not openly made his stance known yet. There may be other potential aspirants and would-be defectors to the ADC off the stage who may be watching events as they unfold, to allow them time to assess the situation.
Among those said to be waiting in the wings, assessing unfolding events in the coalition, are six PDP governors who are currently serving their first four-year term. They are Ademola Adeleke (Osun), Caleb Mutfwang (Plateau), Agbu Kefas (Taraba), Peter Mbah (Enugu), Dauda Lawal (Zamfara), and the suspended Siminalayi Fubara (Rivers).
Four PDP governors who are serving their second and final tenure, are however said to have chosen to give the coalition a wide berth for now. They are Douye Diri (Bayelsa), Bala Mohammed (Bauchi), Ahmadu Fintiri (Adamawa), and Seyi Makinde (Oyo). They are said to be preoccupied with how to secure a viable platform for their successors to contest in 2027. With the seemingly intractable leadership crisis in the PDP, the governors may be forced to seek alternative platforms for their candidates. Also, some of them are believed to be seeking to run for other elective positions in the next dispensation, preferablly, the Senate.
Recall that two PDP Governors – Sheriff Oborevwori (Delta) and Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom) had earlier, defected to the ruling APC with the PDP structures in their states.
Will the combatants in the tug of war over ADC’s presidential ticket be willing to subsume their individual ambitions for the group’s interests? Will the leadership of the ADC, under David Mark, be able to prevail on the contestants to yield grounds for the stability of the new party? Events in the weeks and months ahead will prove if the ADC has indeed come to stay, or a premature still birth.
