Analysts have projected that Nigeria’s headline inflation for March 2025 will likely remain flat or moderate slightly, hovering around the February figure of 23.18%.
This is premised on a mix of favourable base effects, food price stability, and relative calm in the FX and fuel markets, offset by lingering cost pressures.
Industry experts who spoke to Naijaonpoint say the March inflation reading will be influenced by opposing forces—some exerting upward pressure while others offer relief—resulting in a relatively stable outcome.
Head of Research at Norrenberger, Samuel Oyekanmi, projects headline inflation for March to “remain relatively stable around the February level of 23% [month-on-month annualised],” citing a balance between moderating and upward factors.
“The continued effect of rebasing and favourable base effects are expected to exert a moderating influence,” he said. However, he cautioned that the depreciation of the naira in the second half of March and the increase in petrol prices could raise costs across transport and goods. “Overall, we anticipate a gradual easing in headline inflation in the near term.”
In agreement, MD/CEO of Arthur Steven Asset Management, Olatunde Amolegbe, echoed the view of near-term stability, noting that “food prices are stable or even declining in some instances, and energy prices are relatively stable in large parts of the country.”
He added that with the exchange rate holding steady for most of March, the inflation rate is likely to print flat or rise by a modest 25 to 50 basis points. “That should give the monetary policy authorities the impetus to start to consider the lowering of interest rates,” Amolegbe noted.
MD of Optimus by Afrinvest, Ebo Ayodebi, also expects a moderate outcome for March inflation, supported by “a high base effect and stability in FX and fuel prices in the first half of the month.” He suggested that while pressures persisted in some sectors, especially in the second half of the month, the overall effect would be offset by earlier stability and statistical base effects.
Together, these developments signal a likely upward adjustment in inflation for April, reversing some of the temporary stability observed in March.
Naijaonpoint will provide detailed insights once the inflation figures are officially released.