On September 25, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva signed a provisional measure banning fixed-odds betting and online casino games across the country. It ends the operation, offering, intermediation and advertising of betting.
The move has shaken operators and suppliers worldwide. For South African readers, it raises an obvious question. If one of the world’s biggest regulated betting markets can be closed overnight, could the same happen here?
What does Brazil’s ban actually do?
Provisional Measure 1.394 covers sports betting and online casino games and applies to foreign operators taking bets from people in Brazil. Banks and payment firms can no longer process betting transactions, except to close accounts and refund players.
Open bets that are unsettled when sites close will be voided and stakes refunded in full. Winnings on bets already settled must still be paid.
The ban is not yet permanent. It takes effect immediately, but Congress must approve it within 120 days, or it lapses. Congress can also reject or amend it.
The commercial fallout is large. Brazil’s Ministry of Finance had granted 85 licences, worth a combined R$2.55 billion in authorisation fees. Pending applications for market entry have also been halted.
Why did Lula do it?
The government’s case rests on harm. Brazil’s Health Ministry described online betting as a growing public health issue, linked to financial difficulty, anxiety, depression and family conflict. Brazil’s central bank estimated last year that Brazilians spend about R$30 billion on bets each month.
The politics matter just as much. Lula signed the order just over a week before the first round of the presidential election on October 4, in which he is seeking a fourth term. He paired it with a household debt relief programme. The ban is popular: recent surveys suggest roughly three-quarters of Brazilians support a complete ban.
His opponent, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, called the measure populist, hypocritical and politically motivated. There is also an irony. Lula himself signed the 2023 law that authorised online casino games alongside sports betting.
How has the industry reacted?
The loudest warning is about the black market. Brazil’s national betting association, ANJL, said the ban would push more than 30 million bettors onto illegal websites. Kambi chief executive Werner Becher made the same point, arguing that demand does not disappear when licensed operators are removed.
The financial hit is already showing up in guidance:
Brazilian football is also exposed. Betting firms are the biggest sponsors of the country’s clubs, and Flamengo’s deal with Betano, worth $46 million, is the largest in South American football history. Lula argues betting accounts for only 7% of club revenues.
Why is South Africa in focus?
South Africa shares many of the pressures that pushed Brazil to act. Betting is booming, and the harm debate is growing louder.
The scale is similar. National Gambling Board figures show R1.5 trillion was wagered in South Africa in 2024/25, up 31.3% on the year before, with betting making up 75% of all gambling activity.
So, is the harm argument. The NGB recently warned that food, housing, transport, education and debt must come before gambling. It also noted that 36.4% of South Africans aged 15 to 24 are out of work but are still being targeted by offshore platforms. Treatment capacity is thin: over 4,000 people were referred for treatment in 2024/25, only half started, and 23 completed all ten sessions.
Sport depends on betting money here too. Two brands dominate the online market. Blask data puts Betway and Hollywoodbets well ahead of every other operator it measures. Betway’s title sponsorship of the Premiership shows how closely top-flight football is tied to bookmaker money.
Brazil has also been held up as a model before. Three months ago, TechCentral argued that Brazil’s earlier crackdown on illegal operators gave South Africa a workable blueprint. That blueprint has now become prohibition.
Could South Africa follow Brazil?
A Brazil-style ban looks unlikely in South Africa, for three main reasons.
That does not mean nothing will change. The more realistic Brazil effect is on advertising and sponsorship. Before the full ban, one bill in Brazil’s Congress proposed banning betting ads and sports sponsorship while letting licences expire. The NGB’s new partnership with the Advertising Regulatory Board to monitor gambling advertising points in a similar direction, according to SportsBoom.
The politics are also different. In Brazil, a ban became an election pledge. In South Africa, the loudest political critic, Rise Mzansi MP Makashule Gana, backs the 20% tax and tighter regulation rather than prohibition. The industry, through SAROGA, argues Treasury is trying to reshape gambling policy through tax rather than law. Neither side is publicly calling for a ban.
Is anywhere in Africa close to a ban?
One African country has already done it. Ethiopia went further than Brazil, with less international attention.
Ethiopia
The Ethiopian Lottery Service issued a directive banning sports betting companies nationwide, with immediate effect. It followed a multi-agency probe that flagged breaches of licence terms and illicit financial transfers described as a threat to national security. Several betting company owners were arrested, and payment channels were told to stop serving operators.