As the 2027 presidential election approaches, speculations surrounding a potential alliance between former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar and Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, Peter Obi, have become the focal point of Nigerian political discourse.
Naijaonpoint reports that Atiku first hinted at the possibility of such an alliance in 2024 following what he described as a “friendly meeting” with Obi.
This sparked immediate speculation about the future of Nigerian politics, and Atiku later confirmed the discussions in an interview with BBC Hausa.
“Yes, it’s very much possible. We can merge to achieve a common goal,” he said, emphasising that the coalition was achievable if both parties chose to move forward with it.
The latest developments around the potential alliance gained further momentum after Atiku’s visit to former President, Muhammadu Buhari in Kaduna two weeks ago.
Atiku was accompanied by prominent political figures, including former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai, former Speaker of the House of Representatives Aminu Tambuwal, and ex-governors such as Bindu Jibrila, Gabriel Suswan, and Achike Udenwa.
Sources close to the meeting revealed to Vanguard that it was not just a social visit, but a strategic session to inform Buhari of the plans ahead of the 2027 elections and seek his support.
Atiku’s visit to Buhari followed a series of discussions between APC governors and Buhari, signalling a growing shift in political dynamics ahead of the next election.
Speculation now suggests that some of these governors are considering breaking away from the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), a party that helped form the APC, in preparation for the 2027 election.
According to political insiders, the alliance would combine Atiku’s strong influence in the North with Obi’s support in the South-East.
“Atiku’s northern influence combined with Obi’s appeal in the South-East could create a formidable force,” one source noted.
With growing dissatisfaction among northern voters towards President Bola Tinubu’s administration, particularly due to allegations of lopsided appointments and worsening security, the alliance is seen as a viable challenge to the APC’s dominance.
One key component of the proposed coalition is a power-sharing agreement, where Atiku would serve one term (2027-2031) before handing over to Obi for two terms.
This would capitalise on Obi’s popularity among young Nigerians and his philanthropic initiatives, which have gained him significant traction, especially in the North.
Platform For The Alliance: Labour Party Or SDP?
As the Labour Party and PDP continue to deal with internal crises, Atiku and Obi are reportedly exploring the possibility of running on either the CPC or the Social Democratic Party (SDP) platform.
The CPC, which was instrumental in the creation of the APC, could offer a strategic advantage in the upcoming elections. Meanwhile, the SDP has also gained momentum, particularly with former Kaduna Governor Nasir El-Rufai’s defection to the party.
Political analysts suggest that if Atiku and Obi align themselves with either of these platforms, they could provide a strong alternative to the APC, which has been embroiled in internal issues and dissatisfaction among its ranks.
Based on the results from the 2023 election, where Obi secured 6.1 million votes and Atiku garnered 6.98 million votes, combining their votes gives them a strong chance of defeating Tinubu in 2027.
According to the calculations, with Tinubu securing 8.79 million votes in 2023, a combined Atiku-Obi alliance could potentially garner up to 13 million votes, which may be enough to unseat the incumbent president, especially considering the growing disenchantment with his government.
Obidients’ Stand: Obi As The Flagbearer
However, not everyone in the opposition camp is on board with the proposed alliance. The Obidients movement, a grassroots organisation made up mainly of young Nigerians who supported Obi in 2023, has made it clear that they will not support any coalition that does not feature Obi as the presidential candidate.
Responding to the growing speculation, a presidential spokesperson, Daniel Bwala, dismissed the threat posed by the potential Atiku-Obi alliance.
“There is nothing these oppositions under the auspices of the coalition, for a wild goose chase cannot try to do to keep relevance.
“They went to meet Buhari and it was reported that he insisted the meeting be held on camera to avoid any misleading claims about Buhari joining the SDP and PDP,” Bwala wrote on 𝕏.
Bwala further argued that the opposition had no clear plan and that their efforts to sway Nigerian voters were futile.
Meanwhile, members of the Obidients movement, the campaign structure of the LP presidential candidate in the last election populated mostly by young Nigerians, said they would not be part of any alliance if Obi is not its flag bearer.
According to Vanguard, one of those pushing this narrative is Samuel Ajayi, a self-professed Obidient. According him, “If we’ve done Atiku/Obi and it didn’t work, why can’t we do Obi/Atiku? Don’t be emotional about this.
“The fact still remains that aside from the competence and character that Peter Obi has, he is still the most inspiring among all the candidates to unseat Tínubu.”
Another proponent of this narrative is Jonathan Ajere, who said, “Atiku should do all he can to get Peter Obi on board. “But, he should either consider being Obi’s running mate or completely step aside and support Obi wholeheartedly. “This is because any attempt to field any northern candidate when the South has not completed its eight years is going to be counter-productive.
“It will be an express ride for Tinubu to a second term on a platter of gold.
“So, what Atiku and northern oligarchy need to do if they want Tinubu out of office in 2027 is to support a southern candidate and there is no candidate in South that has massive appeal and acceptability across Nigeria like Obi as of today.
“So, if Atiku listens to this voice of reason, the 2027 elections will be a walkover for the coalition. The coalition is what the APC guys dread so much. That’s why they are crying against it in pretence.”