The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has reported a 28.98% rise in the average cost of farm produce between January and May 2025, signaling a worsening crisis in Nigeria’s agricultural sector.
The price index for farm produce surged from 110.5 in January to 142.53 in May 2025, highlighting the intensifying pressure on local food prices, primarily driven by escalating insecurity across the country.
A price index is a statistical measure that tracks changes in the price level of selected goods and services over time.
It helps gauge inflation or deflation by comparing current prices with those of a base period.
According to the NBS data, the price of farm produce has been steadily rising since January. The index stood at 110.5 in January and climbed by 1.77% to 112.46 in February. By March, the index had risen by another 2.65% to 115.43. In April, the increase was slower at 0.88%, bringing the index to 116.46.
However, the most alarming surge occurred between April and May, when the index jumped by 22.28% to 142.53. This sharp increase points to the deepening disruption in agricultural production, largely due to ongoing insecurity, which has severely affected farming activities across the country, particularly in regions like Benue, Nigeria’s food basket.
In contrast to the volatile movement in local farm produce prices, the Imported Food Price Index has remained relatively stable. Starting at 111.5 in January, the Imported Food Index rose modestly by 1.3% to 113.4 in February.
The increase continued, but at a slower pace, with the index reaching 113.9 in March, marking a 0.44% rise. In April, the index rose to 115.3, a 1.23% increase, before declining slightly by 1.39% to 113.7 in May.
This relatively stable trend in imported food prices stands in stark contrast to the erratic fluctuations in the prices of locally produced farm goods. The more subdued movement in the Imported Food Index reflects a global pricing environment that, while under pressure, is less affected by the domestic challenges facing Nigeria’s agricultural sector.
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 22.97% in May 2025, down from 23.71% in April, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the NBS.
This represents a 0.74 percentage point decrease on a year-on-year basis and a notable 10.98 percentage point drop compared to May 2024, when the inflation rate stood at 33.95%.
On a month-on-month basis, inflation also declined to 1.53% in May, compared to 1.86% recorded in April, signaling a moderation in the pace of rising consumer prices.
Food inflation, a key driver of household spending pressures, remained elevated at 21.14% year-on-year, though this marks a sharp decline from 40.66% recorded in May 2024. The slowdown is partly attributed to the statistical base effect following the CPI rebasing to the 2024 base year.
On a month-on-month basis, food inflation rose to 2.19%, up from 2.06% in April, indicating fresh price increases in items like yam, cassava, maize flour, sweet potatoes, fresh pepper, and Ogbono.
This rise suggests that while year-on-year inflation is moderating due to base year changes, Nigerians are still grappling with real-time price hikes in staple foods.
The growing disparity between local and imported food prices has raised concerns over the affordability and accessibility of essential food items for many Nigerians, particularly those in low-income brackets.
The growing disparity between local and imported food prices has raised concerns over the affordability and accessibility of essential food items for many Nigerians, particularly those in low-income brackets.
As insecurity continues to hamper agricultural production, it is likely that the cost of local food items will continue to rise, exacerbating the already challenging economic environment. Immediate intervention from both the government and the private sector is crucial to stabilize the agricultural sector and ensure food security in the country.