Brendan Fraser's Rental Family Gains Oscar Momentum With Middleburg Film Festival Win

Hikari’s Rental Family, starring Brendan Fraser, is struggling to match the competition headed into the 2026 awards season, but a recent win indicates that there may be hope for it yet. Rental Family follows a down-on-his-luck American actor in Tokyo who takes on the unusual job of standing in as a loved one to various clients, eventually playing the “role” of a young girl’s father.

Despite Rental Family getting glowing reviews, it missed out on the vital People’s Choice award, the top prize at the Toronto International Film Festival. Meanwhile, Sinners has been considered a possible Best Picture winner since it came out in March 2025, Hamnet emerged as a frontrunner with the TIFF win, and One Battle After Another has dominated people’s predictions for the past few weeks.

When the TIFF audience award is typically a bellwether for a Best Picture nomination, and the competition is so fierce with Sentimental Value and Marty Supreme in the mix as well, it seemed like Rental Family losing TIFF meant it would lose the nomination. However, Rental Family came back yesterday, tying with Hamnet for the Audience Award at the 2025 Middleburg Film Festival.

Rental Family is lower on many 2026 Best Picture nominations predictions lists, while Hamnet is the runner-up or third place for Best Picture. However, Middleburg boosts Rental Family by putting it back on the same level as Hamnet. Potentially, the tie is even better for it than an outright win, as it will now consistently be in conversation with Hamnet, supposedly being as good as Chloé Zhao’s entry.

Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident was also screened at Middleburg, as well as Noah Baumbach’s Netflix movie Jay Kelly. The former’s accolade makes it a solid contender, while the latter has been in the same position as Rental Family, as a less-likely but possible Best Picture nomination. However, Rental Family is now at least ahead of Jay Kelly.

Brendan Fraser made a massive comeback when he won Best Lead Actor for 2022’s The Whale, prompting speculation that Rental Family would continue his streak, winning him another acting nomination. However, Rental Family appears to be an overall weaker movie in a year with many more truly great movies, and thus will be relegated to a few lucky nods.

While Fraser may be edged out of the 2026 Best Lead Actor race, Rental Family can still secure its legacy with the title of “Best Picture Nominee.” Audiences are obviously in agreement that this is a good movie that deserves recognition, and it would be nice for it to get this nod. There are a few other strong entries it will have to beat out — but nothing is set in stone yet.