The crude oil grades rose on Thursday as market participants weighed the likelihood that talks to end the war in Ukraine would yield an agreement, with trading volume thin due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States.
Brent crude futures gained 21 cents or 0.2 per cent to sell at $63.34 a barrel, and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 45 cents or 0.8 per cent to $59.10 a barrel.
Market analysts noted that the market is swinging between hope and skepticism over renewed peace efforts in Ukraine.
US envoy Steve Witkoff is set to travel to Moscow next week, while Ukraine is reported to have agreed to a peace deal with just some minor details to be sorted out. The prospect of a peace deal unlocking additional Russian crude supply and adding to already ample global inventories is likely to continue to weigh on prices through the week.
Both Russia and Ukraine have been trying to narrow gaps over President Donald Trump’s plan to end Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War Two. Ukraine remains wary of accepting a deal largely on Russian terms, including territorial concessions.
Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin said the outlines of a draft peace plan discussed by the US and Ukraine could become the basis of agreements to end the war. He also said that once Ukrainian troops withdraw from key areas, the fighting will stop, but Russia will achieve its objectives by force if that does not happen.
Meanwhile, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) are likely to leave oil output levels unchanged at their meetings on Sunday, November 30. Eight OPEC+ countries, which have been gradually raising production in 2025, are expected to keep their policy to pause hikes in the first quarter of 2026 unchanged.
Regardless, market participants will be watching closely for any signals on production quotas or output strategy that could either support prices or reinforce bearish pressure. Currently, expectations are that the group is unlikely to alter its first quarter output policy or change the group-wide 2026 output levels.
The market is also supported by rising expectations for a US Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December. A lower rate typically stimulates economic growth and bolsters demand for oil.