…Six MPC members back hold
The policy divide within the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to widen at its next meeting scheduled for February 23–24, 2026, as pressure mounts for a shift toward monetary easing.
Signals from the market and from within the committee suggest that the five members who previously voted for a rate cut may gain stronger backing, especially as inflation expectations soften and analysts increasingly call for a gradual policy pivot to stimulate economic growth.
BusinessDay found that six members at the last Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting maintained a hold on the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27 percent.
The CBN has published the MPC meeting calendar for 2026 on its website, outlining five meetings that will shape the direction of monetary policy in the year ahead.
According to the schedule, the 304th MPC meeting will be held on February 23 and 24, followed by the 305th meeting on May 19 and 20. The committee will reconvene for its 306th meeting on July 20 and 21, while the 307th meeting is slated for September 21 and 22.
The final meeting of the year, the 308th, will take place on November 23 and 24. The calendar provides guidance to financial markets and investors monitoring interest rate decisions, inflation trends and exchange rate developments.
At its November 2025 meeting, the MPC was sharply divided, with five members voting for a 50 basis point cut in the MPR to 26.50 percent, while six members, including Olayemi Cardoso, governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), voted to hold the rate at 27.00 percent due to lingering inflationary and exchange rate risks.
Proponents of easing argue that monetary tightening has reached its peak and that the economy requires calibrated relief to support growth without undermining price stability.
Aku Pauline Odinkemelu, MPC member, said her decision to cut the MPR by 50 basis points was guided by evolving domestic and global conditions. She said a calibrated reduction, alongside a tighter asymmetric corridor of plus 50 and minus 450 basis points, would strike a balance between growth support and liquidity discipline, while retaining all other policy parameters such as the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) and Liquidity Ratio.
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Aloysius Uche Ordu, a member of the MPC, also supported a rate cut, arguing that macroeconomic conditions justified easing while maintaining prudence. He backed holding the CRR for commercial banks at 45 percent, merchant banks at 16 percent. He also agreed on the 75 percent CRR on non-TSA public sector deposits, as well as an unchanged liquidity ratio.
Bandele A. G. Amoo, also an MPC member, said recent domestic and external developments created room for a modest rate reduction, noting that lowering the MPR to 26.5 percent while tightening the corridor would stimulate activity without fueling excess liquidity.
Lamido Abubakar Yuguda, another member, similarly voted to cut the benchmark rate, saying policy needed recalibration in response to slowing momentum in parts of the economy, while the adjusted corridor would strengthen liquidity management and support exchange rate stability.
Murtala Sabo Sagagi, yet another member, said a 50 basis point cut was necessary to spur growth, stressing that monetary policy should now place more emphasis on productive activity while maintaining a tight deposit-side corridor to preserve discipline and foreign exchange stability.
Tilewa Adebajo, chief executive officer of CFG Advisory, said the CBN should begin cutting rates to provide the stimulus needed to unlock growth. He said official inflation is expected to move into single digits by the end of the second quarter (Q2) and urged the government to articulate and implement deliberate disinflation and growth policies. According to him, targeting gross domestic product growth (GDP) of eight to 10 percent would support productivity, employment, exchange rate stability, industrial expansion and investment.
Analysts at FBNQuest said stronger traction in credit activity is expected in the second half (H2) of 2026, supported by potential policy rate adjustments by the MPC and the gradual transmission of easing to lending conditions.
Read also: Analysts see 400bps rate cut in 2026 as disinflation persists
Charlie Robertson, author of ‘The Time Travelling Economist,’ also said inflation has collapsed in Nigeria after prices rose to unsustainable levels in 2024.
In an emailed response in November, he said the CBN had ample room to cut interest rates, noting that at least a 250-basis-point reduction appeared justified and that more transparent inflation data would make rate cuts easier.
In contrast, the majority bloc argued for holding the MPR at 27.00 percent to consolidate the gains of earlier tightening. Bala Moh’d Bello MoN, a member of the MPC, said holding the rate was appropriate after reviewing global and domestic conditions, adding that an unchanged MPR would help anchor inflation expectations and protect monetary credibility despite support for a tighter corridor.
Emem Usoro, deputy governor, CBN, said it was premature to loosen the policy rate given prevailing risks, even though corridor adjustments were necessary to improve liquidity control.
Lydia Shehu Jafiya, another member of the monetary committee, voted to retain all policy parameters, emphasising the importance of consistency and supporting a hold on the MPR alongside existing CRR and liquidity requirements.
Similarly, Muhammad Sani Abdullahi said keeping the rate unchanged would give the committee time to fully assess the effects of earlier tightening, warning against easing too early.
Philip Ikeazor, deputy governor, CBN, also voted for rate hold, arguing that inflation control should remain the central focus of monetary policy as structural reforms advance.
Olayemi Cardoso aligned with the hold camp, saying maintaining the MPR at 27.00 percent was necessary to consolidate disinflation and preserve exchange rate stability. He supported adjusting the standing facilities corridor to +50 and – 450 basis- points but stressed that safeguarding price stability remained paramount.
Despite divisions on the headline rate, the committee agreed to retain key prudential measures, including the CRR for commercial banks at 45 percent, merchant banks at 16 percent, the 75 percent CRR on non-TSA public sector deposits and a Liquidity Ratio of 30 percent.