The Super Eagles of Nigeria are at risk of missing back-to-back FIFA World Cups as they sit fourth in Group C of the qualifiers with just seven points after six games. Despite their array of attacking stars, Nigeria have flattered to deceive consistently.
The six games of the qualifiers have been shared between three different coaches. Jose Peseiro was in charge of the first two draws against Lesotho and Zimbabwe in 2023, Finidi George drew at home to South Africa and lost to Benin. Then, Eric Chelle beat Rwanda and drew against Zimbabwe on Tuesday.
These results have culminated in seven points. Unfortunately for Nigerian fans, they have now had to return to their mathematics textbooks to remaster combinations and permutations.
Exploring the possibilities
As it stands, it looks almost impossible for Nigeria to top Group C with just four games left. First, let me establish that in any situation, Nigeria must win all their games to even have a shot at finishing second.
The Super Eagles play Rwanda at home, South Africa away, Benin at home, and Lesotho away.
Ordinarily, these are games that the Super Eagles should have down pat- but they have shown that they cannot be vouched for. Unfortunately for them, South Africa seem to have hit form and are top of the group with 13 points.
As it stands, they just need to win three of their games to seal their place at the next World Cup. In fact, if Rwanda and Benin draw, the Bafana Bafana would need just two wins to qualify.
So even if Nigeria wins all their games, they still need other teams to do their bidding. And realistically, all the other teams ahead of Nigeria won’t start dropping points all of as sudden.
Forget the playoffs, it will be a miracle if Nigeria make it
A first-place finish in Group C is almost out of reach, and so is the playoffs. Let me first establish that only the best four second-placed teams will make the playoffs.
As it stands, six second-placed teams have at least 12 points, while the seventh one has 11. In ranking order, these countries are Gabon, Cameroon, Senegal, Namibia, Comoros, Mozambique, and Burkina Faso.
Nigeria are on seven points, four points off the Burkina Faso, who have 11 points on the rankings of third-placed teams.
All these teams need is seven points from their next four games, and the players in these teams would lay their lives on the line to ensure they get it.
Despite the gloomy outlook, South Africa’s goof is a ray of sunshine for Nigeria
South Africa have a lingering issue, as they fielded Teboho Mokwena- who was supposed to be ineligible- for their game against Lesotho last week. The midfielder had accumulated two yellow cards and was supposed to serve a one-match ban, but they had a mix-up let him play against Lesotho.
The Bafana Bafana won that game 2-0, but they risk losing the three points and three goals if FIFA sits on the issue. Lesotho will then be awarded the three points and three goals.
If this happens, South Africa will drop to ten points, just three points ahead of Nigeria. The Bafana Bafana also have a +5 goal difference, but if Lesotho are awarded a 3-0 win, their goal difference will drop to +2, just one better than Nigeria.
Meanwhile, if Lesotho get the three points, they will jump to fourth with a +2 goal difference, while Nigeria will drop to fifth with a +1 goal difference.
But even if Nigeria falls to fifth when South Africa are ducked points, it still profits the Super Eagles, as the Bafana Bafana are Nigeria’s biggest problems in Group C. It is expected that Rwanda, Lesotho, Zimbabwe and Benin will cancel out each other. So, Nigeria will just have to win their remaining games against Rwanda, go to South Africa and beat them, then defeat Lesotho and Benin
Unfortunately, the Super Eagles have not been convincing in the 2026 World Cup Qualifiers series, so they could still end up bottling the advantage.