Crude oil prices fell by over 3 per cent on Wednesday, as the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) sees global supply matching demand in 2026, marking a further shift from its earlier projections of a supply deficit.
Brent crude futures settled at $62.71 a barrel after it dropped $2.45 or 3.76 per cent and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures finished at $58.49 a barrel after losing $2.55 or 4.18 per cent.
OPEC said it now expects the global market to be balanced in 2026, abandoning its earlier deficit forecast as non-member production rises and inventories recover.
The revision, detailed in the group’s Monthly Oil Market Report, points to faster supply growth from the United States, Brazil, and Guyana, projecting non-OPEC liquids output to increase by about 1.3 million barrels per day next year.
Global oil demand is forecast to rise 1.6 million barrels per day to 106.2 million barrels per day , steady from last month but no longer enough to tighten balances. The change eliminates the shortfall OPEC had anticipated in October and implies comfortable supply coverage through mid-decade.
The report said OECD commercial inventories have moved back toward their five-year averages, while refining margins in Asia and Europe narrowed for a second consecutive month. OPEC attributed the softer tone to “ample spare capacity, healthy upstream investment, and stronger crude exports from the Americas,” all of which signal a more stable supply picture after two years of constraint.
Also, the International Energy Agency forecast in its annual World Energy Outlook that oil and gas demand could continue to grow until 2050. That was a departure from the IEA’s previous expectation that global oil demand would peak this decade, as the international body moved away from a forecasting method based on climate pledges.
Market analysts noted that the reopening of the US government could boost consumer confidence and economic activity, spurring demand for crude oil.
President Donald Trump signed legislation on Wednesday to officially end the longest federal government shutdown in US history, less than two hours after the United States House of Representatives approved the measure. This development offers relief as the shutdown was weighing on demand in the world’s largest oil-consuming economy by curtailing federal activity, disrupting travel, and withholding key data.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the US saw a build of 1.3 million barrels in the week ending November 7. Crude oil inventories in the US are so far showing a net gain of 4.9 million barrels for the year.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its outlook on Thursday.