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Crude Oil Soars on Modest OPEC+ Output Increase for October

Nembe Crude Oil Grade

Crude oil was up on Monday after the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) opted for a modest output hike and investors priced in the possibility of more sanctions on Russian crude.

Brent crude went up by 52 cents or 0.79 per cent to $66.02 per barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 39 cents or 0.63 per cent to close at $62.26 a barrel.

OPEC+ flagged plans to further increase production from October, but the amount was less than some analysts had anticipated.

Eight members of OPEC+ will lift production from October by 137,000 barrels per day. That, however, is much lower than increases of about 555,000 barrels per day for September and August and 411,000 barrels per day in July and June.

The group has been increasing production since April after years of cuts aimed at supporting the oil market. The latest decision comes despite a likely looming oil glut in the Northern Hemisphere winter months.

The impact of the latest increase is expected to be relatively low, because some members have been over-producing, so the higher output level would likely include barrels that are already in the market.

The cartel on Monday released a compensation schedule from six of its members covering the period from last month and until June next year to make up for producing above their targets.

The bulk of the compensation cuts need to be delivered by Kazakhstan, which has consistently produced above its target, followed by Iraq, Russia and the UAE. Saudi Arabia and Algeria were the only two countries not required to deliver compensation cuts.

The schedule indicates that in total the members need to deliver monthly cuts ranging from 190,000 barrels per day to 829,000 barrels per day to comply with output targets.

US President Donald Trump announced plans to move to a second phase of sanctioning Russia, the closest he has come to suggesting he is on the verge of ramping up sanctions against the Vladimir Putin-led country or its oil buyers over the war in Ukraine.

Market analysts noted that new sanctions on buyers of Russian oil could disrupt crude flows.

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