Russia could launch a limited military campaign against a Nato member within a year of the war in Ukraine ending, according to the Netherlands’ annual defence policy strategy released on Monday.
The Dutch defence ministry emphasised its intelligence services believe Moscow is preparing for a prolonged confrontation with Europe.
“The Dutch intelligence services estimate that Russia is preparing for a long-term confrontation with Europe,” the ministry said.
It added that, in the worst-case scenario, “a limited war against Nato members could be possible within one year of the Russian war in Ukraine ending.”
The warning comes as European governments continue to review their security policies amid Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, now in its fifth year.
Nato to discuss growing Russian threat
The Dutch assessment comes ahead of the Nato summit in Ankara on July 7-8, where alliance leaders are expected to focus on the threat posed by Russia and measures to strengthen Europe’s collective defence.
The report echoes recent comments by Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte, who warned that Russia “could be ready to use military force against Nato within five years.”
According to the Dutch strategy document, Europe is now operating in a “grey area” between war and peace, highlighting the need for greater military preparedness and investment in advanced defence technologies.
Ukraine war continues to shape security outlook
The warning comes as Russia steps up attacks across Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russian missile and drone strikes killed at least 11 civilians and injured dozens more, renewing calls for Europe to speed up the deployment of advanced air defence systems.
Military analysts say Russia continues to adapt despite heavy battlefield losses by expanding defence production, increasing drone manufacturing and rebuilding its armed forces while Ukraine intensifies long-range strikes on military and industrial targets inside Russia.
Experts warn of long-term military threat
Western analysts believe Ukraine’s deep-strike campaign is increasing pressure on the Kremlin but may not significantly weaken Russia’s long-term military capabilities.
They argue that Moscow could rebuild enough military strength within the next five to seven years to pose a major challenge to Nato, while still retaining the ability to carry out limited military action against alliance members much sooner.
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