The European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA) has published four scenarios regarding what migration situation internationally will unfold in the upcoming decade, with these claims suggesting that European asylum and reception authorities should be prepared for.
According to a press release by EUAA, the applications for temporary protection can increase significantly by 2032 and the scope of international protection might change too, SchengenVisaInfo.com reports.
One scenario foresees that a new Cold War can happen between global powers, which can include technological surveillance in authoritarian regimes, to further impact migration for largely automatised and remote processing of asylum applications.
On the other hand, another scenario forecasts that increased political instability and conflict will occur in some countries. Stronger respect for human rights, as well as enhanced economic development in transit countries, in addition to global environmental awareness and more developed digitalisation.
The third scenario sees the world divided into spheres of influence, with transit countries receiving more support for their economic development. However, according to this scenario, the world is more threatened by climate change and technologies that make it almost impossible to protect personal data.
The fourth and last scenario sees climate-related conflicts and other civil challenges in the global South, in addition to differences between the legal framework and implementing the international protection systems.
In other words, the future of asylum-related migration to Europe remains uncertain, but these four scenarios suggest the possible directions where it might be headed to. Regardless of the path this issue might take, it is clear that different countries have to address the main causes of migration which include political instability, economic inequity, climate change, and measures applied at border control between countries.
On the other hand, members of the European Union Parliament have called on the EU to establish a credible migration and asylum policy, in addition to increasing the protection of EU external borders more effectively.
“It’s our duty to make sure that Europe continues to be a space for protection for those who need it. However, the asylum and reception systems across the Member States are under considerable strain,” President von der Leyen pointed out in this regard.
Furthermore, she also noted that the best response to the situation could be making progress on the New Pact on Migration and Asylum, while special attention should be dedicated to the Central Mediterranean route, which is dealing with soaring numbers of illegal border crossings.
