Ahead of the official release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), financial analysts expect Nigeria’s headline inflation to post a marginal decline in June 2025, following a print of 22.97% in May.
Most projections place June inflation between 22.0% and 22.8%, driven by base effects, relative foreign exchange (FX) stability, and seasonal food supply adjustments.
However, the outlook is tempered by sticky food inflation, persistent insecurity, and demand pressures.
According to the Managing Director of Optimus by Afrinvest, Ebo Ayodeji, June inflation is likely to ease further on the back of a stable naira and relatively contained energy prices.
“We anticipate a further decline in headline inflation in June 2025, largely due to continued FX stability and minimal volatility in energy prices,” he noted. “However, food inflation remains a concern due to heightened insecurity in key food-producing areas like Benue State.”
Managing Director of Rostrum Investment & Securities Ltd, Olaitan Sunday, projects inflation to ease slightly to 22.4%–22.8%, citing a mix of statistical and policy-driven factors.
“Although structural challenges like insecurity and high transport costs remain, we believe inflation will decline modestly due to FX gains, seasonal harvests, and reduced consumer spending,” Sunday concluded.
An executive banker, Onche Samuel, shares a more optimistic projection, expecting headline inflation to drop to approximately 22.0% in June. He attributes this to tighter monetary conditions and improvements in core inflation indicators.
“The Central Bank’s sustained tight monetary policy, evident in elevated yields on treasury instruments, and the marginal appreciation of the naira at the NAFEM window helped suppress core inflation, especially in pharmaceuticals and logistics,” Samuel said.
Still, he warns that the decline from May to June may be less pronounced than that seen between April and May, largely because of stubborn food inflation.
However, Idris Adeniyi, Head of Investment at Norrenberger Pension Limited, suggests the possibility of a slight uptick above 23% due to the Eid-el-Kabir (Sallah) festivities, which led to a 35% surge in the prices of livestock and select commodities earlier in the month.
“The NBS typically captures CPI data early in the month, so the brief increase in fuel prices towards the end of June may not be reflected. But the festive-driven spike in food prices likely was,” Adeniyi said.
While analysts are cautiously optimistic about a mild drop in June 2025 inflation to between 22.0% and 22.8%, the outlook remains mixed. Food inflation, insecurity, and festive demand remain key pressure points, while currency stability, policy measures, and seasonal supply patterns offer room for short-term relief. July’s inflation trajectory will largely depend on how these opposing forces evolve.
If current FX stability holds and early harvests continue, July inflation could remain within similar bounds as June. However, any sharp depreciation of the naira or increase in fuel prices could push inflation back toward or above 23%.
Looking ahead, inflation may come under renewed pressure in July.
Looking ahead, inflation may come under renewed pressure in July.