The past year has been challenging for property investors, with a sluggish economy slowing residential rental escalations in most regions in 2024.
Rental escalations are likely to be applied cautiously in 2025 to avoid vacancies, particularly given the potential for a decline in demand for rental properties as tenants, motivated by lower interest rates, migrate to property owners.
Lower rental returns will see investors looking at alternative ways to generate improved income from their investments. Short-term holiday rentals have impacted rental prices in tourist destinations, with higher rental income achieved in peak holiday times, pricing out consumers looking for long-term rental property. This trend, especially in the Western Cape, has some lobbyists calling for stricter regulations to protect consumers from inflated rental prices and a lack of affordable rental supply. SA Tourism has requested better transparency from platform providers. The risk for bond providers is that investors are financing these properties based on current tourism trends and rental income, which relies heavily on the success of platforms like Airbnb.
Consumption changes are driving commercial property growth
The commercial property sector grew in 2024 and this positive trajectory is expected to continue in 2025 as interest rates are lowered. Property developers are focusing on convenient neighbourhood retail and merging with online retailer needs. In urban areas, convenience and easy access are prioritised, while larger developments are succeeding in rural, underserved areas.
Industrial properties, particularly logistics and warehousing in the Western Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng, continue to outperform other commercial sectors. Secure and well-serviced industrial parks are in demand and expected to grow. However, traditional industrial areas around Johannesburg and the Pretoria CBD face a value collapse due to security risks and inadequate infrastructure maintenance to service the nodes.
ESG is likely to become a high-value agenda item for commercial property investors in 2025 to ensure compliance and reduce operating costs. The latest SAPOA Operating Cost Report reveals that 29% of operating expenses go to electricity costs and 23% to property taxes.
The risk of leakages
Water shortages are the next big challenge, posing a significant risk to property owners. Government and municipalities must act before it becomes another catastrophic reality like Eskom. Addressing water shortages is a dual challenge requiring both the building of and better maintenance of water infrastructure, including sewage treatment plants, and longer-term, the creation of additional reservoirs to keep up with population growth and mitigate climate change risks.
Leakages extend beyond water. Revenue leakages include missed recoveries, escalations, lease changes, and renewal options, to name a few. Increased regulatory requirements have resulted in more time being spent on compliance, and this is not expected to ease. Regulatory and compliance changes and demands on property-related companies remove valuable focus and resources from internal due diligence and processes to prevent revenue and recovery leakages. We predict more organisations will invest in technology resources to identify revenue leakages and focus on tools to drive operating costs down.
The Revolution of AI in the Property Sector
Technology – particularly AI – has become indispensable to the property sector, from AI-powered marketing and presentation tools to automated management systems. While these advancements streamline operations and enhance decision-making, they also introduce new challenges, particularly in data security and risk management.
As we move into 2025, property companies must carefully consider the appropriate balance between AI and human expertise. By striking this balance and implementing robust data protection measures, organisations can harness the power of AI while preserving their brand authenticity and competitive edge.
The Necessity of diversity in Decision-Making
Property investment is a complex and often high-stakes endeavour. As a fixed asset with emotional and financial implications, property valuations and transactions can be challenging. Recent shifts in market perception have further complicated the landscape, with divergent opinions on property’s potential as a wealth generator or alternately, a financial drain.
To navigate this complex market, accurate and reliable data is essential. Mitigating bias and leveraging diverse perspectives allows investors to make more informed decisions. Access to neutral, data-driven insights from respected sources can help uncover hidden opportunities and avoid costly mistakes.
As the property market evolves, tools and information available to investors must also adapt. Companies of all sizes are increasingly recognizing the importance of accurate, accessible, and representative data. They are investing in reliable external data sources to gain a competitive edge and make more strategic decisions.
The lingering effects of high interest rates
Persistently high interest rates raised the cost of credit and placed additional pressure on already strained consumers and businesses. They also dissuaded residential property acquisitions, leading to fewer home loan applications and a decline in the transfer of both bonded and unbonded properties in 2024. Lightstone data reveals that first-time buyer volumes slumped by 20% in 2023.
While welcome, the first two interest rate cuts will take time to filter through to residential property acquisitions. Encouragingly, demand from first-time home buyers appears to be recovering slowly with ooba Home Loans noting a rise in applications to 49.6% in September 2024, the highest reading since November 2022. We expect residential property sales to accelerate in 2025 as interest rate relief starts to filter through, albeit at a slower pace in dysfunctional municipalities.
Individual investors are increasingly choosing to maintain smaller portfolios and using tax-efficient structures such as companies and trusts. TPN anticipates that this trend will persist into 2025. Demand for buy-to-let properties has risen since late 2021, particularly in the Western Cape, followed by the Eastern Cape and Tshwane. Although this trend is expected to continue, it may slow down around mid-2025 as demand shifts from rental properties to ownership.
Municipal performance linked to property value creation
Service delivery quality, infrastructure and the maintenance of that infrastructure impact the value of property types. Well-run municipalities will continue to attract investment. Since 2020, semigration has highlighted the successes and failures of provinces and cities, resulting in decreased revenue collections for some of South Africa’s largest municipalities.
Safety and security continue to influence where South Africans choose to live and work, impacting both the residential and commercial property landscape. Mixed-use developments, secure estates, sectional title properties, and commercial parks offering efficient ways to provide enhanced security, service delivery, productive infrastructure, and maintenance spending will continue to be in demand.
An important consideration that will become increasingly significant in 2025 is the quality and accessibility of the lifestyle available in certain areas. Well-maintained and safe parks, public spaces, beaches, dams, lakes, and other recreational facilities will make these areas more appealing to tenants, businesses, and investors.
The outlook for property KPIs
Residential vacancies are expected to increase in the latter half of 2025 due to lower interest rates and improved consumer confidence. Office and retail vacancies are likely to remain stable in the first half of 2025 but will decrease should business confidence improve and if GDP targets are met. Industrial property vacancies will remain low as demand remains strong, especially in the Western Cape and infrastructure development nodes in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal.
Rental escalations for commercial and residential properties will improve in the first half of 2025. Investors will be keen to enhance their returns after a period of sluggish economic performance with slightly healthier consumers offering the opportunity to grow rental income strategically.
The good standing of both commercial and residential tenants is expected to continue to improve as landlords use stricter vetting and collection strategies.