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Global Oil Demand to Rise 1.7mbpd in 2022—IEA

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Global oil demand is expected to rise by 1.7 million barrels per day this year compared to 2021.

In its latest Oil Market Report (OMR), the International Energy Agency (IEA) revised downward the trend by 100,000 barrels per day.

The Paris-based agency said its demand growth estimate will be supported by high prices, which will weigh on consumption.

“Higher prices and a deteriorating economic environment have started to take their toll on oil demand, but strong power generation use and a recovery in China are providing a partial offset,” it stated.

Total global oil demand is expected to average 99.2 million barrels per day in 2022, up by 1.7 million barrels per day compared to 2021, the IEA said in its July forecast.

In June, the agency had expected annual growth of 1.8 million barrels per day in oil demand for 2022. A month ago, the IEA saw 2023 demand rising further by 2.2 million barrels per day to a record 101.6 million barrels per day.

The latest report downgrades the forecast by 100,000 barrels per day to an expected increase of 2.1 million barrels per day next year.

Demand growth in 2023 is set to be driven by a strong growth trend in developing economies, the agency said.

However, the IEA warned that “rarely has the outlook for oil markets been more uncertain.”

“For now, weaker-than-expected oil demand growth in advanced economies and resilient Russian supply has loosened headline balances,” according to the agency.

High fuel prices have already started to dent oil consumption in the OECD, but this was largely offset by a stronger-than-expected demand rebound in emerging and developing economies led by China, the IEA said.

While oil market sentiment has materially deteriorated since June amid expectations of economic slowdown and fears of recession, “price premiums for physical barrels widened on rising seasonal demand for both crude and products while supply remains constrained,” the agency noted.

“As an EU embargo on Russian oil is set to come into full force at the end of the year, the oil market may tighten once again. With readily available spare capacity running low in both the upstream and downstream, it may be up to demand-side measures to bring down consumption and fuel costs that pose a threat to stability, most notably in emerging markets,” said the IEA.

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