Analyst Benjamin Cowen is detailing a potential worst-case scenario for bitcoin and the crypto markets at large.
In a new video for his 765,000 YouTube subscribers, Cowen looks to the infamous explosion of the dot-com bubble for clues as to where the digital asset markets may end up.
Looking at the total market cap of all crypto assets, the analyst says that the current pullback could drop to around $760 billion mark.
At that point, Cowen says the 60% jump would be proportional to the boom seen in the dot-com era, bringing the total market cap back to the $1 trillion level.
If and when that happens, Cowen says the market will hit a very difficult spot.
“If we get a 60% bounce off the future bottom – let’s say it happens at the end of the year – a lot of people will assume it is down and to some extent I would probably assume it is down…
But we should always remember that there is no sure thing about investing, there is always a risk you are taking no matter how confident you are that something will work out.
And if it’s to play like the dot-com bubble then at the next low level you will see a further drop of 27% from that point to the actual bottom.
Source: Benjamin Cowen / YouTube
If this market structure holds up, the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies will eventually hit a low of around $500 billion.
Cowen cautions that there is never any certainty in the markets, adding that bulls can make a coherent case that the bottom is already in place for bitcoin.
He tells traders that it is never a bad idea to have some cash on hand in case the market is less or less than you think possible.
“It’s something to consider. It’s a worst-case scenario. I don’t know if it’s going to play out, but it’s something I think everyone should consider when navigating the cryptoverse.”
I think a lot of people have been burned in the past. If you haven’t already understood the downside risk with cryptocurrency and need to learn your lesson. It’s going to surprise a lot of people if we see another foot down. ,
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