Nigeria’s aspiration to become a $1 trillion economy remains unrealistic without structural reforms that drive productivity, enhance purchasing power, and sustain long-term growth.
This was the position of CFG Advisory, presented at the monthly forum of the Finance Correspondents Association of Nigeria (FICAN), where the firm unveiled its 2026 economic forecast titled: “The Urgency of Now – Reforms Lead to Productivity-Led Growth.”
Speaking at the event, the CEO of CFG Advisory, Tilewa Adebajo, said Nigeria has the potential to become a $2 trillion or even $3 trillion economy, but it must overcome its pattern of inconsistent policies and macroeconomic instability.
At the FICAN event, Adebajo stressed that Nigeria’s trillion-dollar ambition will remain a slogan unless backed by clear, deliberate growth strategies. He explained that while Nigeria has seen flashes of economic scale in the past, it has consistently failed to build momentum.
He cautioned that Nigeria risks confusing policy stabilisation for real growth, and without boosting productivity, the gap between ambition and reality will only widen.
Nigeria has long harboured aspirations to grow its economy to match global peers with similar resource endowments. However, a combination of policy missteps, macroeconomic volatility, and inconsistent reform has stalled progress.
This history highlights why scale must be built patiently, not promised rhetorically.
Despite achieving macroeconomic stabilisation on some fronts, Adebajo warned that real impact will only come when Nigerians can buy more with their earnings.
He said Nigeria is currently stuck in a “sachet economy,” a term that captures the sharp decline in consumer purchasing power.
He also pointed to contradictions in monetary policy: “If inflation is truly falling towards 15%, why are policy rates still almost double that level? Such distortions signal an economy prioritising nominal stability over real growth — a trade-off Nigeria can no longer afford.”
President Bola Tinubu has set a long-term target of expanding Nigeria’s GDP to $1 trillion by 2030, aiming to attract investment and improve the quality of life for citizens.
“Macroeconomic reforms are necessary but insufficient,” Adebajo said. “Without deliberate sectoral policies — such as developing domestic supply chains, boosting agriculture-linked manufacturing, and funding capital budgets — stabilisation will not translate into prosperity.”
Citing Indonesia’s transformation as a blueprint, Adebajo concluded: “Scale is built patiently, through consistent policy and long-term investment, not through rhetoric.”