Nigeria’s headline inflation rate moderated sharply to 15.15 percent in December 2025 following a methodological review of the Consumer Price Index by the National Bureau of Statistics, signalling a significant easing of price pressures compared with both the previous month and the same period last year.
According to the latest CPI report, the index rose marginally to 131.2 points in December from 130.5 points in November, reflecting a slower pace of increase in average prices across the economy.
On a year-on-year basis, headline inflation declined to 15.15 percent in December 2025 from 17.33 percent in November and was substantially lower than the 34.80 percent recorded in December 2024. The NBS attributed the sharp deceleration partly to easing price pressures and partly to a revised inflation measurement methodology.
In its report, the bureau explained that the CPI increased by 0.7 points month on month in December, while the year-on-year inflation rate dropped by 19.65 percentage points compared with December 2024. It noted that the figures were calculated using a different base year, with November 2009 set to 100, following the rebasing exercise.
On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation slowed to 0.54 percent in December from 1.22 percent in November, indicating moderation in short-term price movements.
The NBS clarified that the December figures reflect a change in methodology following the rebasing of the CPI. Under the new approach, year-on-year inflation and sub-indices are calculated using a twelve-month reference period, with the average CPI for 2024 set to 100, rather than a single-month base. The bureau said using a single-month reference would have produced artificial spikes in inflation due to base effects rather than actual price changes.
The revised approach aligns Nigeria’s inflation measurement with international best practice under the International Monetary Fund Consumer Price Index Manual and the ECOWAS Harmonised CPI framework. As a result of the rebasing, November inflation was revised upward to 17.33 percent from the previously reported 14.45 percent.
Despite the moderation, inflationary pressures over the year remained elevated. The twelve-month average inflation rate stood at 23.01 percent in December 2025, reflecting cumulative price increases over the period.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages remained the largest contributors to headline inflation, accounting for 6.06 percentage points of the year-on-year figure. Restaurants and accommodation services contributed 1.96 percentage points, transport added 1.62 percentage points, while housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels contributed 1.28 percentage points.
Food inflation recorded one of the sharpest improvements, falling to 10.84 percent year on year from 39.84 percent in December 2024. On a month-on-month basis, food prices declined by 0.36 percent, reversing the 1.13 percent increase recorded in November. The NBS linked the decline to lower prices of staples such as tomatoes, garri, eggs, grains, vegetables, beans and fresh onions. The twelve-month average food inflation rate stood at 22.00 percent.
Core inflation, which excludes farm produce and energy, eased to 18.63 percent year on year from 29.28 percent a year earlier. Month on month, core inflation slowed to 0.58 percent, while the twelve-month average core inflation rate remained elevated at 23.49 percent.
Urban inflation declined to 14.85 percent year on year from 37.29 percent in December 2024, although month-on-month urban inflation edged up slightly to 0.99 percent. Rural inflation fell to 14.56 percent year on year and recorded a month-on-month decline of 0.55 percent, compared with a 1.88 percent increase in November.
At the state level, Abia recorded the highest year-on-year inflation rate at 19.03 percent, followed by Ogun at 18.80 percent and Katsina at 18.66 percent, while Sokoto recorded the lowest at 8.61 percent. The NBS cautioned against direct comparisons across states, noting differences in consumption patterns and CPI weights.
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund has endorsed Nigeria’s December 2025 inflation outcome and the revised CPI methodology adopted by the NBS, describing the changes as consistent with international best practice and supportive of macroeconomic stability.
In a statement issued on Thursday on behalf of the IMF Resident Representative for Nigeria, Christian Ebeke, the Fund said the easing inflation figures, if sustained, could help reduce cost-of-living pressures and support economic stability. The statement was issued by the Office Manager to the IMF Resident Representative, Laraba Bonet.
The IMF noted that the rebasing exercise, which adopts a twelve-month reference period for 2024, improves data quality and comparability over time. While acknowledging that the methodological change led to revisions in Nigeria’s 2025 inflation figures, the Fund said the broader trend still shows inflation gradually easing through the year.
The endorsement comes amid public debate over Nigeria’s inflation path following the CPI rebasing, which the NBS said was necessary to eliminate distortions caused by statistical base effects rather than real price movements.