Obviously, one would say that the macroeconomic indicators are finally pointing in the right direction, yet, daily realities for households and businesses tell a very different story because Nigeria stands at a delicate intersection. No doubt on paper, inflation is easing, the naira is stabilising, and sovereign ratings have improved; but food prices remain painfully high, purchasing power continues to deteriorate, and insecurity is ravaging the agricultural value chain while ensuring that any progress in inflation moderation remains fragile.
As the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) convenes its 303rd Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) as its final meeting of the year on 24-25 November, the dilemma before it is clear: Should it respond to improving macroeconomic data with further monetary easing, or should it recognise that the true enemy of price stability is not merely monetary but structural, deeply rooted in insecurity and collapsing food supply?
The reality confronting the nation is that, despite the favourable macroeconomic tailwinds, Nigeria’s biggest inflationary threat is insecurity-induced food inflation, which remains largely unaddressed. Until the MPC anchors its decisions around this core challenge, monetary policy will continue to chase shadows.
A Fall in Inflation, but Not in Hardship
The National Bureau of Statistics’ latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report revealed that inflation improved for the second consecutive month, falling sharply from 18.02 percent in September to 16.05 percent in October 2025, which is the lowest in 44 months. This moderation was driven by a new CPI base year and some easing in food prices.
Whilst the headline inflation has slowed, month-on-month inflation increased from 0.72 percent to 0.93 percent, underlining persistent price pressure at the household level. Nigerians are still struggling to pay more for food, transport, energy, housing, and essential services.
Obviously, the Organised Private Sector (OPS) welcomed the drop but quickly cautioned that it does not reflect real-life conditions.
Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, summarised this contradiction perfectly, “The sharp moderation in October inflation represents a significant win for macroeconomic stability. However, the full welfare benefits are yet to be felt due to persistent structural constraints, especially in food supply, transportation, energy, housing, and essential services.”
These “structural constraints,” in reality, are overwhelmingly traced to insecurity, which is the silent force disrupting agricultural production and distribution across Nigeria.
Food Inflation: The Heart of the Crisis
Presently, food inflation remains Nigeria’s most damaging and persevering price problem. Even with the October headline easing, food prices remain abnormally high.
Eke Ubiji, the Director-General of the Nigerian Association of Small and Medium Enterprises (NASME), flagged the inflation data as disconnected from reality, “Send people to the market now. A half-bag of rice goes for between N30,000 and N40,000. Before, a full bag was about N20,000. So, are we moving forward or backwards?”
This is not a mere anecdote; it is the lived experience of millions. Food inflation has remained structurally high for nearly five years, and the root cause is not monetary expansion; it is insecurity.
Across key food-producing belts like Benue, Plateau, Niger, Kaduna, Katsina, Zamfara, Taraba, Kebbi, and Sokoto, farmers cannot access farmlands due to the following adverse factors:
– Banditry
– Terrorist attacks
– Herdsmen conflicts
– Kidnapping-for-ransom
– Destruction of crops and storage facilities
– Extortion and illegal “harvest taxes” by criminal groups
This is why the MPC’s decisions, no matter how sound, have limited impact. Monetary tightening cannot stop gunmen from attacking farmers. Interest rate adjustments cannot clear gridlocked rural roads. Liquidity controls cannot fix the collapse of rural markets emptied by chaos.
Femi Egbesola, the President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria, echoes this lived tension, “All of this has not translated to tangible results in the lives of households and small businesses. It has been very tough, and it is even getting tougher.”
Without resolving insecurity, food inflation will continue to undermine every macroeconomic gain.
OPS: Nigerians Don’t Feel the Relief
Across all private-sector groups, one message is constant, inflation numbers are falling, but hardship remains high.
– SMEs are shutting down due to high input costs.
– Consumers’ purchasing power is collapsing.
– Operational costs remain higher.
– Food remains largely unaffordable.