With 30 months left in his tenure, Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu of Lagos State remains firmly in office.
However, the political stage is already brimming with activity as ambitious contenders begin their campaigns for the 2027 gubernatorial race.
Both ruling and opposition parties are setting the groundwork, and key players are positioning themselves for the Alausa Round House.
APC’s Frontline Aspirants
In the All Progressives Congress (APC), heavyweights are lining up for a chance to lead Lagos. The list of rumored aspirants includes Seyi Tinubu, the son of President Bola Tinubu; Lagos State House of Assembly Speaker, Hon. Mudashiru Obasa; former Governor Akinwunmi Ambode; and Senator Tokunbo Abiru.
The decision on the APC candidate is expected to be influenced by factors such as religion, zoning, indigeneship, and endorsements from influential stakeholders like the Governor’s Advisory Council (GAC) and President Tinubu himself.
Seyi Tinubu, a rising political figure, has received endorsements from various groups, while Speaker Obasa has declared his capability to govern the state, citing his extensive legislative experience. Former Governor Ambode is also in the spotlight, with some party members advocating for his return to balance the 16-year religious leadership cycle between Christians and Muslims.
Opposition Gearing Up
On the other side, opposition parties are not left behind. Abdulaziz Olajide Adediran (Jandor) of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour of the Labour Party (LP) are reportedly preparing to renew their ambitions.
Both figures made notable impacts during the 2023 elections and are now working to realign with their party structures to increase their chances in 2027.
Jandor, who spearheads the Lagos4Lagos movement, continues to rally support among PDP founding members, while Rhodes-Vivour remains a popular figure among Lagos’ younger electorate, particularly in urban centers.
Religious Dynamics in Focus
Religion is poised to play a significant role in determining the next Lagos governor. Sanwo-Olu, a Christian, succeeded Akinwunmi Ambode, also a Christian, bringing the total duration of Christian leadership to 12 years by 2027. Some stakeholders argue that this is a time to maintain the balance by returning power to a Muslim candidate, while others insist on completing a 16-year Christian leadership cycle to match the tenure of Bola Tinubu and Babatunde Fashola, both Muslims.
Sanwo-Olu’s Journey and Power Dynamics
Governor Sanwo-Olu’s emergence in 2019 marked a turning point in Lagos politics. The incumbent, Akinwunmi Ambode, was ousted by the APC power bloc led by Bola Tinubu, paving the way for Sanwo-Olu’s candidacy as a consensus choice.
His second-term ambition faced initial challenges, with rumors suggesting other candidates such as Femi Gbajabiamila, now Chief of Staff to the President, and Hakeem Muri-Okunola, the Lagos Head of Service, were being considered.
However, public endorsements by Gbajabiamila and Muri-Okunola, coupled with widespread support from party members, solidified Sanwo-Olu’s position, enabling him to secure re-election.
Some APC chieftains were of the opinion that Tinubu is a master planner and can spring surprises at any given time.
Lagos Deputy Governor, Babafemi Hamzat also came into the picture as having plans to succeed Sanwo-Olu but a source told Vanguard that the inner caucus has plans for him to relocate to Epe in order to make a case for the Lagos East Senatorial slot and complete what ought to be Akinwumi Ambode’s card.
Obasa’s Resilience and Ambition
Hon. Mudashiru Obasa, the longest-serving Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly, is another key figure to watch. During the 2025 budget presentation, Obasa addressed speculation about his governorship ambitions. While emphasizing his commitment to strengthening the APC, he did not rule out the possibility of running.
“Becoming governor is secondary,” Obasa said. “However, I am not too young or inexperienced to lead. My focus remains on building our party and ensuring that our state’s governance continues to thrive.”
Obasa’s grassroots connections and influence within the Mandate Group, an influential faction in Lagos APC politics, make him a formidable contender.
Opposition Realignment
In the PDP, Jandor is strengthening his ties with party stalwarts and aligning his Lagos4Lagos movement with broader PDP interests. Similarly, Rhodes-Vivour, who gained significant traction in the 2023 elections, is leveraging his popularity to position himself as a strong contender.
The Road Ahead
As the race for the 2027 Lagos gubernatorial election heats up, all eyes are on the APC’s eventual candidate. The decision will likely come down to internal party dynamics, religious considerations, and endorsements from key figures, including President Tinubu. For the opposition, unity and strategic alliances will be crucial in challenging the APC’s dominance.