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Today, some Nigerians have not failed to point accusing fingers at Nyesom Wike, the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), as the one who has driven the last nail on the coffin of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), given his alignment with the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) as a serving minister.
However, the majority of the political watchers, especially those who are conversant with happenings in the once ruling party, PDP, understand that the party failed in the 2023 general elections majorly because of the ambition of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who decided to ignore the unwritten power-rotation (zoning) principle between the North and South when the PDP held sway.
Following the 2023 primary election which so many believed was largely organised to suit Atiku, Southern party leaders, led by Wike demanded internal equity. They specifically requested the resignation of the then PDP National Chairman, Iyorchia Ayu, to ensure that both the presidential candidate and party chairman didn’t come from the same region.
Atiku’s resistance to these demands alienated the then G-5 governors — Wike of Rivers, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu, Seyi Makinde of Oyo, Samuel Ortom of Benue and Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia, which later led to their defeat at the poll.
Since then, the main opposition party has witnessed metamorphosis, albeit on the downward swing, with disintegration and mass defection further highlighting the aftermath of the brouhaha. Since then, PDP has never remained united, as it surrendered its main opposition status to the African Democratic Congress (ADC), a party Atiku and others from both the PDP, Labour Party and the All Progressives Congress (APC) later joined.
With such political heavyweights like the two last runners up in the presidential election in 2023 — Atiku and Peter Obi — as well as the fourth placed Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, among others like the former Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Babachir Lawal, and former Osun State governor, Rafiu Aregbesola — ADC became everything PDP failed to be. It rose to the point of mere mentioning its name send shivers down the spines of the ruling party.
However, following the conclusion of its primaries which threw up Atiku as the presidential flag bearer, ADC seems to be toeing the ill-fated path of the pre-2023 PDP, as so many accusing fingers have once again pointed to the way of the former vice president as the reason the party is virtually disintegrating, particularly given that based on the unwritten arrangement, the South still has four years to go at the presidency.
Given his massive following, especially among the young demography due largely to his anti-corruption stance and prudent management of resources, a trait he deeply exhibited while holding sway as Anambra State governor, Obi became the biggest threat of the ruling party in the ADC.
However, Obi left the ADC after it was clear that the party’s presidential ticket was not going to be transparently contested.
“From inception, Atiku was the one for the ticket,” said an insider very close to the former governor, who spoke to our correspondent on anonymity.
“Even Obi was aware that the party was resurrected for the sake of Atiku’s ambition but he played along and hoped that they would make it open.”
Meanwhile, an Obi ally and the Obidient Movement National Coordinator, Yunusa Tanko, also told our correspondent that Obi left the party because the primary election was scripted to be monetised (perhaps in favour of the former vice president).
“The issue is that Obi doesn’t want to go through the primary that is highly monetised instead of pursuing credibility,” he said.
“They want him to remain there so that they would do all sorts of things but the man wants to go to where such problems are not and he has achieved that and gotten the ticket.”
Today, ADC is heavily depleted following the exit of the former Anambra State governor. Even the party acknowledged this recently while speaking through Bolaji Abdullahi, its National Publicity Secretary.
“Is Obi’s exit a setback? The answer is yet. Is it a fatal blow? The answer is no, because the objectives are very clear. They’re still the same,” Abdullahi said.
“Personally, I’m not happy they left. And I cannot tell you why, because I have my own sentiments. I’m not happy they left,” he said.
Meanwhile, while the earlier projection was for the ADC to take advantage of the huge followership of Obi through Obidient Movement to advance the course of the party, the exit also of Kwankwaso who is reportedly the running mate of the former Anambra governor also deprived the ADC of the huge Kwankwasiyya followership, which would undermine the party’s fortunes in both the South East and the trio states of Kano, Kaduna and Katsina. Even after leaving the New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP) and falling out with his godson, Governor Abba Yusuf, Kwankwaso still has a massive following, particularly in the north west, a reality that once threatened the ruling party which has been lost by the ADC.
Meanwhile, if the exit of Kwankwaso and Obi, as well as a couple of supporters and some members of the National Assembly loyal to him is not enough, the recent exit of former SGF, Lawal, might have also further sounded death knell on the once imposing opposition ADC.
Just like Obi’s case, Lawal cited what he called a flawed primary election which was, from the start, he said, skewed to favour the former vice president, to leave.
“I’m exiting the ADC because it’s just concluded primaries were at all levels massively rigged in favour of Kachalla Abubakar Atiku.
“Results were just written or rewritten to favour him and his coven. Even where they allowed some semblance of an election to be held, the winners were simply replaced with members of his syndicate. In the real sense, it was a disgraceful charade,” Lawal said in a statement posted on his social media platforms.
The ex-SGF said the silence which greeted the primaries prompted him to speak and set the record straight.
“I sense a conspiracy of silence of which I want no part. Most members of the party are behaving as if this is the normal thing to do,” the statement further read, vowing not to be part of any rigging plan in the 2027 elections, adding that working for Atiku is the same as “giving Tinubu an automatic ticket to a second term, which gives me nightmares.”
Similarly, another big wig of the party and former Rivers State governor, Rotimi Amaechi, condemned the process that threw up Atiku.
In a post on his X handle ahead of the official announcement of the party’s primary results, Amaechi said the process failed to meet the standards of transparency and fairness earlier promised by the party.
“Following reports of widespread voter disenfranchisement in most parts of the country during the African Democratic Congress (ADC) Presidential Primaries yesterday, I unequivocally reject the concocted results being announced,” he stated.
Consequently, analysts believe the party, through the defections, has lost the vibe that trailed its revival as the main opposition party, with electoral fortunes expected to be affected in places such as the entire South East and South South where the Nigerian Democratic Congress (NDC’s) of Peter Obi is expected to amass votes because of the former Anambra governor who also won massively in those regions.
Also, the calculation that Kwankwaso’s desire to deputise Obi because he is looking at the bigger picture of being the presidential candidate in 2031 should their ticket fly in 2027 means that part of the north west like Kano, Kaduna and Katsina will likely be shared between NDC and the ruling party given that Governor Abba Yusuf of Kano will want to show strong stand for the ruling party.
Daily Independent gathered that a good number of those even working in the Kano State Government are still loyal to Kwankwaso and that may likely result in votes for the NDC.
In the last election, north central presented mixed fortunes for the candidates but the entrance of David Mark, the National Chairman of the ADC may twerk votes for the party.
However, commentators believe Atiku’s ambition might also have been the nemesis of the ADC ahead of 2027 as the party is not expected to make inroads in choice states like Lagos, Rivers and Kano where a huge voting bloc goes a long way to determine presidential election winners.
With the court ruling on extension of political party activities ahead of the general elections, there may still be alignments but according to watchers, there are also still permutations on how ADC will fare in the poll.