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most stable housing market

The red-hot pandemic housing market has cooled off in recent months. Mortgage rates are set to more than double from the historic lows seen in 2021, due to the Federal Reserve’s actions to combat inflation. As a result, home sales have slowed dramatically, and prices have begun to decline. However, housing markets tend to be less stable in some parts of the country and more vulnerable to volatility than others.

Prior to the recent decline, the median home price in the US had been rising almost continuously since 2012, when prices bottomed out in the wake of the 2008 Great Recession and housing crisis. Home prices started rising more rapidly in the second half of 2020. Due to a combination of factors – including increased demand for housing, a limited supply of new homes, and expectations about future home prices.

In March 2022, the Federal Reserve began a series of interest rate hikes in an effort to reduce inflation, and by the summer, the median housing price had begun to stabilize. However, higher interest rates have made home buying a more expensive undertaking, especially in cities where home prices have risen the most over the past few years. As potential buyers weigh their options in this market, it is helpful to consider how various locations have historically performed during periods of volatility.

Housing markets in some cities are particularly sensitive to price fluctuations. Atlantic City is one housing market that has proven to be more volatile than others. The median price of housing in Atlantic City reached a high of over $300,000 in 2007 before crashing to a low of $174,544 in 2017. After this home prices started rising again and have increased rapidly in the last two years. In comparison, the Pittsburgh housing market has been far more stable. Pittsburgh home prices remained relatively flat during the 2008 housing crisis and ensuing recession, and the increase in home prices since the pandemic has been more muted than in many other parts of the US.

At the state level, Oklahoma, Iowa, and Alaska have the most stable housing markets, as measured by the likelihood that a home buyer experienced a price decline of more than 5% at any point between 2000 and the present. Will happen. Purchase. There was a 0% chance of this happening in all three of these states. In contrast, the probability of experiencing at least a 5% price decline between 2000 and the present was 50.2% in Nevada and 49.8% in Georgia.

To determine the locations with the most stable housing markets, researchers at Construction Coverage analyzed the latest data from Zillow. The researchers ranked metros according to the likelihood that a random buyer would experience a price drop of at least 5%, using data from 2000 to the present. For each location, the researchers calculated the largest price decline from 2000 to the present, the current median home price, and the percentage change in home price from 2000 to the present.

Here are the US metropolitan areas with the most stable housing markets.

Large Metros with Most Stable Housing Markets

Photo credit: John S. Quinn / shutterstock

15. Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC

  • Likely to experience a 5% drop in price (2000-present): 24.2%
  • Biggest drop in prices (2000–present): $49,198
  • Average home price (current): $334,319
  • Percent change in house prices (2000-present): 171%

Photo credit: Hendrickson Photography / shutterstock

14. Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-In

  • Likely to experience a 5% drop in price (2000-present): 22.7%
  • Biggest drop in prices (2000–present): $12,831
  • Average home price (current): $243,782
  • Percent change in house prices (2000-present): 116%

Photo Credit: Farid Sani / shutterstock

13. Raleigh-Cary, NC

  • Likely to experience a 5% drop in price (2000-present): 21.2%
  • Biggest drop in prices (2000–present): $30,661
  • Average home price (current): $448,553
  • Percent change in house prices (2000-present): 156%

Photo credit: Sean Pavone / shutterstock

12. New Orleans-Metairie, LA

  • Likely to experience a 5% drop in price (2000-present): 21.2%
  • Biggest drop in prices (2000–present): $26,049
  • Average home price (current): $270,020
  • Percent change in house prices (2000-present): 121%

Photo credit: photo.ua / shutterstock

11. Salt Lake City, UT

  • Likely to experience a 5% drop in price (2000-present): 20.9%
  • Biggest drop in prices (2000–present): $78,455
  • Average home price (current): $582,222
  • Percent change in house prices (2000-present): 212%

Photo credit: Steve Heap / shutterstock

10. Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN

  • Likely to experience a 5% drop in price (2000-present): 20.9%
  • Biggest drop in prices (2000–present): $26,081
  • Average home price (current): $452,985
  • Percent change in house prices (2000-present): 215%

Photo credit: ESB Professional / shutterstock

9. Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

  • Likely to experience a 5% drop in price (2000-present): 19.8%
  • Biggest drop in prices (2000–present): $135,255
  • Average home price (current): $550,214
  • Percent change in house prices (2000-present): 188%

Photo credit: nectofadiev / shutterstock

8. Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX

  • Likely to experience a 5% drop in price (2000-present): 19.4%
  • Biggest drop in prices (2000–present): $16,123
  • Average home price (current): $314,051
  • Percent change in house prices (2000-present): 149%

Photo credit: izabella23 / shutterstock

7. Urban Honolulu, HI

  • Likely to experience a 5% drop in price (2000-present): 16.1%
  • Biggest drop in prices (2000–present): $97,356
  • Average home price (current): $928,450
  • Percent change in house prices (2000-present): 271%

Photo credit: Valiik30 / shutterstock

6. Tulsa, OK

  • Likely to experience a 5% drop in price (2000-present): 15.0%
  • Biggest drop in prices (2000–present): $9,399
  • Average home price (current): $217,564
  • Percent change in house prices (2000-present): 115%

photo credit: f11photo / shutterstock

5. San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX

  • Likely to experience a 5% drop in price (2000-present): 11.0%
  • Biggest drop in prices (2000–present): $15,889
  • Average home price (current): $340,353
  • Percent change in house prices (2000-present): 160%

Photo credit: Ryan Konin / shutterstock

4. Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX

  • Likely to experience a 5% drop in price (2000-present): 10.3%
  • Biggest drop in prices (2000–present): $38,559
  • Average home price (current): $549,232
  • Percent change in house prices (2000-present): 210%

Photo credit: Henrik Sadura / shutterstock

3. Oklahoma City, OK

  • Likely to experience a 5% drop in price (2000-present): 0.0%
  • Biggest drop in prices (2000–present): $5,304
  • Average home price (current): $222,360
  • Percent change in house prices (2000-present): 143%

Photo credit: Open.tours LLC / shutterstock

2. Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY

  • Likely to experience a 5% drop in price (2000-present): 0.0%
  • Biggest drop in prices (2000–present): $4,535
  • Average home price (current): $244,001
  • Percent change in house prices (2000-present): 163%

photo credit: avonstock / shutterstock

1. Pittsburgh, PA

  • Likely to experience a 5% drop in price (2000-present): 0.0%
  • Biggest drop in prices (2000–present): $3,892
  • Average home price (current): $209,084
  • Percent change in house prices (2000-present): 136%

Detailed Findings and Methodology

To determine the U.S. metropolitan areas with the most stable housing markets, researchers at Construction Coverage analyzed the latest data from Zillow. Zillow Home Value Index ,ZHVI, A measure of typical home value. The researchers ranked metros based on the likelihood that a random buyer purchasing a home at any time between 2000 and the present would have experienced a price decline of more than 5% after purchase. In the event of a tie, the metro with the largest price drop since 2000 was ranked higher. The researchers also calculated the current median home value – using the most recent ZHVI – and the percentage change in home prices from 2000 to the present. Metrographs missing three or more consecutive months of JHVI data were excluded from the analysis. For metros missing data for one or two consecutive months, missing values ​​were imputed using the average of ZHVI for the months immediately preceding and following.

To improve relevance, only metropolitan areas with at least 100,000 people were included in the analysis. Additionally, metro areas were divided into the following groups based on population size:

  • Small Metropolis: 100,000–349,999
  • Mid-sized cities: 350,000–999,999
  • Large Metropolis: More than 1,000,000

This article was first published on LatticePublishing.com.

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