Nigeria is drifting toward a one-party state as wave of defections favors APC ahead of 2027 elections.
NaijaOnPoint Nigeria reports that as Nigeria edges closer to the 2027 general elections, growing unease grips the nation amid a surge of defections from opposition parties to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
The movement of key political figures including governors, senators, and other top officials has sparked fears that Africa’s largest democracy may be sliding toward a one-party system.
In the past few months, Nigeria’s political landscape has shifted dramatically. Governors Peter Mbah of Enugu State and Douye Diri of Bayelsa State recently abandoned the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) for the APC within days of each other. Their defections bring the APC’s control to 25 of the country’s 36 states, leaving the PDP with just eight, while the Labour Party (LP), All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) each retain a single state.
Political analysts warn that this growing consolidation of power may weaken democratic checks and balances. Many liken the situation to the late 1990s under General Sani Abacha’s regime, when multiple parties effectively operated under one political umbrella.
Opposition in Crisis
The once-dominant PDP is struggling to survive internal conflicts and mass defections. Since President Bola Tinubu assumed office in May 2023, the party has lost over 15 senators, several House of Representatives members, and four governors to the APC.
The Labour Party, once energized by the Peter Obi movement, is entangled in factional leadership disputes, while APGA’s ideological influence has waned as its only governor, Prof. Charles Soludo, aligns with Tinubu’s agenda. The NNPP is battling internal strife and fading relevance.
NNPP National Chairman, Agbo Major, condemned the defections, warning that Nigeria risks becoming a one-party state. “If one party controls both the legislature and the executive, democracy becomes meaningless,” he said. “This is a dangerous trend threatening the future of our democracy.”
Senate Minority Leader Abba Moro also cautioned against the mass defections, urging Senate President Godswill Akpabio to protect Nigeria’s democratic institutions rather than weaken them through political convenience.
APC Defends Defections
Some APC leaders argue that the defections are driven by “political survival” rather than ideological collapse. APC chieftain Okpokwu Ogenyi described many defectors as opportunists chasing power, while others, he claimed, genuinely support President Tinubu’s developmental vision.
However, critics see it differently. Human rights lawyer Barrister David Mike slammed Senate President Akpabio’s recent boast that “President Tinubu will win 99.9% of votes in 2027” as “undemocratic and dangerous,” warning that such rhetoric undermines competitive politics.
‘History Repeating Itself’
Observers note that Nigeria’s political history is repeating itself. During the Second Republic (1979–1983), opposition parties provided balance to Shehu Shagari’s ruling National Party of Nigeria (NPN). Today, that diversity appears to be disappearing.
Religious leaders have also voiced alarm. The Catholic Bishops Conference of Nigeria, in a communiqué signed by Archbishop Lucius Ugorji and Bishop Donatus Ogun, warned that “Nigeria is gradually sliding into a one-party state, which is unhealthy for democracy.”
A Familiar Pattern
The current climate echoes past attempts by military rulers like Ibrahim Babangida to control political participation through a state-managed two-party system. Critics warn that Nigeria’s democratic plurality is once again under threat as political power becomes concentrated in one dominant party.
For many citizens, the concern goes beyond who wins in 2027, it’s about whether Nigeria’s democracy will still exist in its true form when the opposition is silenced and political loyalty replaces ideology.