Nigeria’s crude oil production could rise to about 2.3 million barrels per day by 2030 as the industry gradually recovers from years of underinvestment and regulatory inefficiencies in the upstream oil and gas sector, according to Austin Avuru.
Avuru, a former NNPC geologist and Co-Founder and Pioneer Chief Executive Officer of Platform Petroleum Limited and Seplat Energy Plc, made the projection on Thursday, April 9, 2026, at a high-level upstream oil and gas roundtable convened at The Wheatbaker Hotel, Ikoyi, Lagos by Olaniwun Ajayi LP, a full-service commercial law firm in Nigeria.
He said the outlook reflects a prolonged structural downturn driven by a decade-long collapse in investment and output that significantly disrupted production growth, warning that the effects would take years to fully unwind despite a gradual recovery in investment activity.
According to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Nigeria’s crude oil production stood at about 1.38 million barrels per day in March 2026.
Avuru projected that Nigeria’s crude oil production could reach about 2.3 million barrels per day by 2030, noting that the industry is only just beginning to recover from a prolonged period of weak investment and structural inefficiencies.
He compared the current situation in the oil and gas sector to past disruptions in Nigeria’s banking industry, arguing that delayed regulatory responses contributed significantly to long-term output losses.
Avuru said the downturn was driven by structural and regulatory inefficiencies that slowed investment, especially during divestments by international oil companies, noting that approval delays worsened the situation as exiting firms cut spending and new operators ramped up slowly, prolonging weak capital inflows and declining output.
Avuru linked the sector’s challenges to broader issues of execution discipline, governance, and operational efficiency within oil and gas companies, stressing that production recovery depends not only on capital but also on execution quality. He said companies must focus on disciplined planning, clear production targets, and transparent performance tracking to improve outcomes.
He maintained that sustainable profitability in the oil and gas sector must align with broader public interest to ensure long-term stability and growth.
Nigeria’s crude oil exports declined by about 225,000 barrels per day in February following the shutdown of the Bonga Floating Production, Storage and Offloading vessel for scheduled turnaround maintenance. The shutdown affected one of Nigeria’s largest deepwater production assets at a time when the country is working to stabilise output and boost foreign exchange earnings.
Despite the improvements, Nigeria’s output remains below its production target, although the country retained its position as Africa’s top oil producer in March.
Nigeria is currently pursuing policy and investment initiatives aimed at unlocking new upstream growth, particularly in deepwater assets that have remained stalled for years.
The Bonga Southwest project is widely seen as a major signal of renewed investor confidence in Nigeria’s upstream oil sector, with potential to reshape deepwater investment flows.