Nigeria may be heading toward a severe food crisis in 2026 as farmers across the country, particularly in the North-Central and North-West regions, warn that escalating production costs, insecurity, and massive post-harvest losses are forcing many of them to consider abandoning agriculture altogether.
From Niger to Nasarawa, Kogi, and Kaduna states, small and medium-scale farmers, in separate interviews with Naijaonpoint, lamented that despite recent government directives aimed at reducing food prices, the soaring costs of key inputs such as fertiliser, fuel, and labour have made farming increasingly unprofitable.
Several farmers warned that unless urgent measures are taken to address their challenges, many of them may be forced to abandon farming altogether.
Ibrahim Abdullahi, a rice farmer from Niger State, said that despite the federal government’s promises to support farmers through various initiatives, the realities on the ground remain discouraging.
“The cost of fertiliser, pesticides, and fuel has tripled in the last two years. We can barely break even, and most of us are already running into debt,” he lamented. “If this continues into next year, many farmers will simply walk away from the farms. That’s when the real food crisis will hit,” Abdullahi said.
Another farmer, Simeon Dabeng, described the situation as dire, noting that many producers are already operating at a loss due to insecurity and inadequate government support. “The cost of production in this country is very high. Farmers lack the right support, not to mention insecurity. Yet we are being asked to lower prices without subsidy or negotiation,” he said.
For Bashir, a rice farmer from Niger State, the federal government’s directive under President Bola Tinubu to reduce food prices will not be sustainable without tangible support for producers.
“This may not be sustainable if farmers are not supported to go back to the farm. Government must ensure that input costs are reduced and that rural infrastructure is improved to sustain production,” he said.
Similarly, Patience Ayuba, a maize farmer in Nasarawa State, expressed frustration at what she described as government neglect of farmers despite their importance to national food security.
“Farmers are tired of empty promises. We cannot keep producing at a loss while everything—from seeds to diesel—keeps getting more expensive,” she said. “Many of our youths are no longer interested in farming because there’s no profit and no protection,” she said.
Many farmers echoed similar frustrations, revealing that they have suffered heavy losses during recent harvest seasons due to rising operational costs and poor market access. Several blamed the collapse of earlier support schemes such as the Anchor Borrowers Programme — introduced under former President Muhammadu Buhari — for the decline in productivity and enthusiasm among smallholder farmers.
“When the Anchor Borrowers Programme came, many of us went into full-scale farming. We left our jobs because we believed agriculture was the future,” said one maize farmer from Nasarawa state. “But since that programme faded away and new ones haven’t reached us, many of us have abandoned our farms. We cannot keep working at a loss.”
The farmers also cited insecurity in several parts of the country, especially in the North, as a major deterrent to large-scale production. Banditry, kidnapping, and herder-farmer conflicts have forced many to abandon their farmlands, while others now pay huge sums for private security.
Many of the farmers are calling on the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security and their state counterparts to prioritise smallholder farmers in their 2026 budget plans.
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has warned that about 34.7 million Nigerians could face severe food insecurity during the next lean season (June to August 2026) if timely and coordinated interventions are not implemented. This projection was contained in the October 2025 Cadre Harmonisé analysis.
The report attributes the worsening situation to a combination of factors, including persistent conflicts and violence in major food-producing regions, economic shocks, and the growing impact of organized crime. These challenges, the analysis notes, have continued to erode resilience and deepen vulnerabilities, particularly in the North-Central states of Benue, Nasarawa, Niger, and Plateau.
The report attributes the worsening situation to a combination of factors, including persistent conflicts and violence in major food-producing regions, economic shocks, and the growing impact of organized crime. These challenges, the analysis notes, have continued to erode resilience and deepen vulnerabilities, particularly in the North-Central states of Benue, Nasarawa, Niger, and Plateau.
Dr. Grace Alonge, an agricultural economist at the University of Abuja, noted that the warning signs are already visible.
“We are seeing reduced cultivation, poor yields, and a steady withdrawal of farmers from production. Unless the government introduces targeted interventions—such as subsidised inputs, improved access to credit, and rural security measures—the country may experience one of its worst food crises in recent history,” she explained.
Analysts like Ben Okukpe from Nasarawa State University, Keffi, argue that while the government’s push to reduce food prices is well-intentioned, such directives must be backed by robust support systems — including input subsidies, mechanization programmes, rural road rehabilitation, and affordable credit facilities for farmers.
Without such measures, stakeholders fear that the country could experience severe food shortages in 2026, further worsening inflation and deepening poverty levels.
As one farmer put it: “We want to feed the nation, but we can’t do it alone. The government must act now — not with promises, but with real action. Otherwise, next year’s harvest may be the smallest Nigeria has seen in decades.”
Earlier, Naijaonpoint reported that there has been a recent decline in food inflation in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate slowed to 18.02% in September 2025, marking a decline from 20.12% recorded in August 2025, according to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
According to the report, the food inflation rate stood at 16.87% in September 2025 on a year-on-year basis, representing a sharp decline of 20.9 percentage points from 37.77% recorded in September 2024.