The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) had, in its latest report, revealed that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.13% year-on-year in real terms in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025.
According to the Bureau, this represents an improvement from the 2.27% growth recorded in Q1 2024 and reflects the continued resilience of the economy, underpinned by strong performances in the services and industry sectors.
The new growth figures emerged following the successful rebasing of Nigeria’s GDP by the NBS last year.
Nigeria’s public debt-to-GDP ratio dropped to 39.4% in Q1 2025, following the successful rebasing of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The rebasing exercise expanded GDP coverage to include sectors such as the digital economy, fintech, creative industries, and the informal sector.
Meanwhile, the new GDP figures have elicited diverse opinions as some government officials, analysts, and even critics react to the development.
While some Nigerians were optimistic about the growth of the Nigerian economy, others were cautious, noting that more needs to be done
The Special Adviser to the President on Policy Communication, Daniel Bwala, in his reaction, on his official X (formerly Twitter) account, noted that the report is a clear testament to the bold, visionary economic reforms of President Bola Tinubu. He also took a swipe at the coalition, describing their efforts as a wild goose chase
Bwala posted, ‘’TINUBUNOMICS: Nigeria’s GDP grows by 3.46% in Q1 2025, a clear testament to the bold, visionary economic reforms of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. To the coalition on a wild goose chase: Nigerians are NOT ready to abandon a leadership that is lifting this nation onto a pedestal of growth, stability, and economic buoyancy. Renewed hope is not a slogan. It’s a RESULT.’’
Another Presidential aide, Kamorudeen Olawale Yusuf, in his post, noted that the new GDP figures provide a more accurate reflection of Nigeria’s evolving economic structure and sectoral contributions.
He said, ‘’According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.13% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, an improvement from the 2.27% growth recorded in Q1 2024. The growth comes despite economic challenges and follows the recent rebasing of national accounts, which has recalibrated Nigeria’s economic outlook and raised its nominal GDP to N94.05 trillion in Q1 2025. The new figures provide a more accurate reflection of the country’s evolving economic structure and sectoral contributions.’’
Another X user, Sanusi Dantata, believed in the credibility of the report by the NBS and pointed out that a lot of work needs to be done to achieve the desired $1 trillion economy.
He said, ‘’I find this very credible. It shows the true independence and delicate work of the guys at NBS. Many people expected the NBS to cook up numbers and rebase our GDP to something between $400 to $500 billion. But they didn’t! It’s $250 billion. On PPP basis, it will be much higher. That’s not good enough, and a lot of work needs to be done to push our economy to $1 trillion.”
An Estate Surveyor and Valuer, Ukpono Louis, pointed out that a larger GDP signals economic strength.
He stressed that following the rebasing in 2014, Nigeria’s newfound status as Africa’s largest economy attracted international investors looking for emerging market opportunities.
“Real estate became one of the biggest beneficiaries,” he added, saying the NBS is using 2019 as the base year because, according to him, that was the last time Nigeria had a semblance of a stable economy, which was not volatile.
“Real estate became one of the biggest beneficiaries,” he added, saying the NBS is using 2019 as the base year because, according to him, that was the last time Nigeria had a semblance of a stable economy, which was not volatile.
He was of the view that following the rebased year of 2019, stakeholders should buckle up for a further surge in new trends that occur as a ripple effect of the rebasing.
“New district will open up. Investors will become more confident to fund new projects. More demand for housing. More assured mortgages,” he stated.
However, some commentators appear cautious and pessimistic with their views on the new GDP
Speaking during an interview on Arise TV, the CEO of CFG Advisory, Adetilewa Adebajo, said that it is clear Nigeria has lost its position as the fifth-largest economy in Africa, noting that the country has lost almost $400 billion in GDP over the last 12 years.
He said, “I think the pronouncements were a bit confusing. What the statistician general told us then was that he was looking at 2019 figures based on Nigeria’s GDP data.
‘’In 2019, the GDP was about N205 trillion, which translated to roughly $138 billion. But looking at the current numbers, he said Nigeria’s GDP for 2024 is now N314 trillion. In dollar terms, that’s approximately $243 billion.
‘’That said, I don’t think there’s much significance in these estimates. Even with all the rebased numbers, it’s clear that Nigeria’s position as the fifth-largest economy in Africa hasn’t shifted much. However, we’ve lost our dominance as the largest economy on the continent.
‘’More importantly, our growth numbers remain far from optimal. For instance, GDP growth in Q4 2023 was 3.8%. If you look back, Nigeria’s GDP was once close to $550–$600 billion. Today, it has dropped significantly to about $240 billion.
‘’It’s fair to estimate that we’ve lost nearly $400 billion in GDP over the past 12 years which is pretty significant.’’
Basil Abia, co-founder, Veriv Africa, opined that the rebased GDP figures for Nigeria by the NBS, though published, came 6 months late.
According to him, the data point that scares him the most from the rebased GDP figures is the fact that the industrial sector’s contribution to the GDP shrank post-rebasing from 27.65% to 21.08%.
He said, “You can deduce that the liberalization reforms have hit the industrial sector the most: from the removal of key energy subsidies to the devaluation of the Naira and the unification of the foreign exchange market.”
He also stated that the poor performance of Nigeria’s electricity supply sector continues to stifle the country’s industrial growth.
An X user OPEOLUWA, was very cautious in her assessment of the report, noting that a 3.13% GDP growth can’t lift Nigerians out of poverty.
She said, ‘’Q1 GDP growth for 2024 was 2.98%, Q1 GDP growth for 2025 is 3.13%. Getting a 4% annual growth this year is very difficult at this point. We simply can’t lift people out of poverty with 3.13% growth.’’