A marginal rise of 0.6 points was recorded by the business environment in Nigeria in September 2025, data from the NESG-Stanbic IBTC Business Confidence Monitor (BCM) showed.
It was disclosed that last month, the index read 107.9 points, in contrast to the 107.3 points achieved in August 2025.
The positive trajectory was driven by a rebound in agriculture, supported by the harvest season, and steady activity in the services sector, with the sectoral review confirming that all five broader economic activities stayed in the expansion zone.
Agriculture posted the strongest recovery, rising sharply to 107.3 from a contractionary 95.6 in August, while Non-manufacturing (114.5), Trade (107.6), and Manufacturing (102.5) all expanded, albeit at a slower pace compared to August.
Key BCM sub-indices, such as investment, exports, access to credit, and prices, registered marginal gains relative to August 2025, pointing to improving sentiment in capital formation and external trade.
Importantly, recent improvements in cost of doing business and input prices suggest a gradual moderation of inflationary pressures on firms. However, this positive trend remains fragile, as financing constraints, erratic electricity supply, high commercial property costs, unclear policy signals, and persistent insecurity continue to undermine business confidence and investment appetite.
In the report, Stanbic IBTC estimated that the oil and non-oil sectors may have grown by 14.3 per cent y/y and 4.4 per cent y/y, respectively, translating into overall GDP growth of 4.5 per cent y/y in Q3:25.
“We now lift our 2025 growth forecast to 4.0 per cent y/y, from 3.5 per cent y/y, after fully accounting for the impact of GDP rebasing, and after surprisingly good Q2:25 GDP growth.
“Going into 2026, the non-oil sector’s growth should remain strong amid a likely reduction in interest rates and low inflation, both of which should support aggregate demand and private investment.
“Further, a likely less exchange rate volatility in 2025 and 2026 based on our current estimates should support growth across trade, manufacturing, real estate, and construction.
“Aside from that, the forward-linkage impact of Dangote Refinery should benefit manufacturing growth in the medium term.
“The IMF expects the Dangote Refinery to increase non-oil GDP growth by c.1.5 per cent in 2026. Oil refining has already grown for a third consecutive quarter, to 15.78 per cent y/y in Q2:25, from 11.51 per cent y/y in Q1:25, although its contribution to the manufacturing sector remains insignificant, at 0.1 per cent,” it stated.