Nigeria’s gross reserves declined by $1.2 billion month-to-month to $37.2 billion at the end of June 2025, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) latest data on gross official reserves shows.
The gross reserves has dropped in five months in the six months on record, excluding a brief uptick in May 2025, when it increased by approximately $515 million.
The gross official reserves have steadily declined since January 2025, with May being the sole exemption.
Year-to-date, the reserves have declined by around $3.7 billion, driven by the CBN’s interventions in the foreign exchange (FX) market and the repayment of external debt obligations.
Recent data from early July indicates a slight improvement, primarily attributed to enhanced foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows; however, the trajectory of reserves remains susceptible to external headwinds.
The reduced FX demand pressures, particularly due to a slowdown in import trade-related outflows are also expected to provide support.
Also, there are early signs that import-related FX demand is beginning to recover in the past few days.
The Naira appreciated by 3.5 per cent in June 2025, to close at N1,532.0 per Dollar at the official window driven by improved market sentiment, the data showed.
The Naira currently trades below N1,530 per Dollar, closing at N1,529/$1 on Thursday.
Despite some early signs of recovery in July, Nigeria’s external reserves continue to face headwinds from fragile oil market fundamentals, uncertain supply dynamics from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+), and weaker-than-expected global growth prospects.
This week, a CardinalStone Research note projected that Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves will close the year at around $41 billion.
In its newly released mid-year economic outlook, the Lagos-based research and investment advisory firm attributed the anticipated reserve growth to planned external loans worth $3.2 billion, which the Federal Government aims to secure in the second half of 2025 to meet fiscal obligations.
It added that additional capital inflows from portfolio investors are also expected to support the balance and push reserves above the $37.2 billion recorded at the end of June.
According to the firm, a stronger reserve position should help the Naira trade within the N1,550 to N1,635 per US Dollar range until the end of 2025, providing relief to businesses and foreign investors monitoring currency stability.