The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has admitted the positive impact of Nigeria’s non-oil sector on its economic growth in the second half of last year.
In its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) released on Wednesday, the Organisation noted that “Nigeria’s economy showed resilience in 2H25, posting sound growth despite global challenges, as strength in the non-oil economy partly offset slower growth in the oil sector.”
This is as the report, quoting primary sources, noted that the country’s crude oil production slipped slightly to 1.422 million barrels per day (bpd) in December 2025, down from 1.436 million bpd in November.
OPEC data indicate that Nigeria last met its production quota in July 2025, with output remaining below target from August through December.
Quarterly figures reveal a consistent decline across 2025; Q1: 1.468 million bpd, Q2: 1.481 million bpd, Q3: 1.444 million bpd, and 1.42 million bpd in Q4.
According to the report, cooling inflation, a firmer naira, lower refined fuel imports, and stronger remittance inflows are improving domestic and external conditions.
It forecasted inflation to decelerate further on the back of past monetary tightening, currency strength, and seasonal harvest effects, though it noted that monetary policy remains restrictive.
“Seasonally adjusted real GDP growth at market prices moderated to stand at 3.9%, y-o-y, in 3Q25, down from 4.2% in 2Q25. Nonetheless, this is still a healthy and robust growth level, supported by strengthening non-oil activity, with growth in that segment rising by 0.3 percentage points to 3.9%, y-o-y. Inflation continued to decelerate in November, with headline CPI falling for an eighth straight month to 14.5%, y-o-y, following 16.1%, y-o-y, in October”.