The oil market was slightly up on Monday on the back of exemptions for some electronics from US tariffs and data showing a sharp rebound in China’s crude imports in March.
During the trading session, Brent crude futures improved by 12 cents or 0.2 per cent to $64.88 per barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures grew by 3 cents to trade at $61.53 a barrel.
The President of the United States, Mr Donald Trump, last Friday granted exclusions from steep tariffs on smartphones, computers, and some other electronic goods imported largely from China.
It was the latest in a series of policy announcements that imposed tariffs and then walked them back, spurring uncertainty for investors and businesses.
President Trump later said on Sunday he would announce the tariff rate on imported semiconductors in the coming days.
For the Chinese imports, the exclusion of the tech products applies only to President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, which climbed to 125 per cent this week as the prior 20 per cent duties on all Chinese imports that he said were related to the US fentanyl crisis remain in place.
China increased its tariffs on US imports to 125 per cent last Friday, hitting back against the American president’s decision to further raise duties on Chinese goods and increasing the stakes in a trade war that threatens to upend global supply chains.
These developments raise concerns that the trade war could weaken global economic growth and dent fuel demand.
China’s crude oil imports in March rebounded sharply from the previous two months and were up nearly 5 per cent from a year earlier boosted by Iranian oil and a rebound in Russian deliveries.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a monthly report on Monday that global oil demand will rise by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, down by 150,000 barrels per day from last month’s forecast, citing trade tariffs among the reasons.
Top market analysts like Goldman Sachs and UBS have also cut their forecast.
Goldman Sachs expects Brent to average $63 and WTI to average $59 for the remainder of 2025, with Brent averaging $58 and WTI $55 in 2026 while UBS reduced its Brent forecasts by $12 a barrel to $68.
The US could stop Iranian oil exports as part of President Trump’s plan to pressure Iran over its nuclear programme.
However, Iran and the US held talks in Oman on Saturday and agreed to reconvene next week.