By Maxwell Adeyemi Adeleye
As Osun State prepares for its next gubernatorial election in August 2026, political calculations within the All Progressives Congress (APC) are heating up. Choices and strategies are being made about the right choice of candidates. The APC, which is currently the opposition in the state, is at a critical position.
With some APC members pushing for zoning the next candidate to Osun West as the best strategy to win back the state, I believe a more strategic approach is more important.
Former Osun state governor Gboyega Oyetola, is backing Bola Oyebamiji, his former Commissioner for Finance and current Managing Director of the Nigeria Inland Waterways. The belief that APC’s best shot is to pick a candidate from Osun West Senatorial district, presumably to challenge the current governor, Ademola Adeleke, who also hails from the same senatorial district is completely out of strategy. This decision that will work well on paper will end up being a strategic blunder.
Osun APC should know that Governor Adeleke is not just from Osun West, politically, he owns Osun West. As an opposition figure, he defeated the APC candidate, Mudashiru Hussain to win the Senatorial bye-election in 2017, even when Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola was the governor, winning 9 out of 10 local councils in Osun West with a margin of 31,364 from the ten local councils of West.
Despite losing the 2018 Guber poll election under controversial circumstances to Gboyega Oyetola, he still won Osun West convincingly, scoring 97,772 votes against 74,995 polled by APC and Oyetola in the same district. Adeleke came back to defeat Oyetola, a sitting governor in 2022. Not only did he win convincingly in Osun West district, he left a deficit margin of 27,698 for APC to grapple with – 144,558 (PDP) and 116,860 (APC), but his popularity has only grown since, especially in the Western region of the state where he has focused significant development efforts. Trying to challenge Adeleke on his home turf, using zonal sentiments that was used to fuel his support base, by pitching another candidate from Osun West, is like walking into a storm without an umbrella.
Osun APC need to remember they don’t even have a firm grip on Osun West right now, and by extension, the state. The zone’s party structure is partially controlled by former Interior Minister and two term governor, Rauf Aregbesola. Aregbesola’s loyalists like Moshood Adeoti, a former Secretary to the State Government who hails from Iwo federal constituency and Najeem Salam, a former Speaker of the State House of Assembly, hold high influence in their areas and turf. Some Aregbesola’s loyalists who were formerly faithful to APC, are not entirely loyal to Oyetola, nor to Tinubu. With the ongoing internal drama in Osun APC, with Aregbesola not really in the saddle, picking a candidate from Osun West is overly optimistic, and may be unrealistic.
APC should take a leaf from the incident in Edo state. If the Osun APC members will only notice the turn of events in Edo state, how politics requires strategy rather than sentiments. Many people saw Adams Oshiomhole as the kingmaker who would single handedly decide the party’s candidate because of his close relationship with President Bola Tinubu. They believed the president would favor Oshiomole over any other candidate. But that wasn’t the case. Instead, the President allowed political goodwill, experience, and popularity to take center stage.
Rather than pushing through a candidate favored by party elites, the APC in Edo rallied around Senator Monday Opebolor, a more popular grassroots candidate and serving Senator. Opebolor attracted support not just from within the APC but also from opposition camps and influential allies across the state. Can’t we all see the result? The APC flipped Edo, winning a state many thought was beyond reach by defeating the ruling party in the state.
If APC wants to win Osun in the forthcoming 2026 gubernatorial election, the Edo template is the blueprint they need to adopt.
The party needs to forget zoning, completely. It’s time for the Osun APC to open up the process and choose a candidate based on popularity, numerical strength, voting population, ancient cities deprived of the governorship seat, capacity, and connection with the people. Cities like Ife or Osogbo where the APC has retained significant influence, a traditional stronghold of the party thanks to the presence of Senators Jide Omoworare and Iyiola Omisore, is a fertile ground for a strong, winnable candidate that must be explored. Names like Ajibola Basiru and Kunle Adegoke from Osogbo and possible contenders from Ife deserve serious consideration. What if Omisore and Oyebamiji combined their ticket as governor and deputy, or Ajibola Basiru and Jide Omoworare combined structure and run the state ticket like the Ophebolor/Idahosa of Edo?, or possibly Ajibola Basiru and Dotun Babayemi joint ticket?
This strategy will be best accepted because it also aligns with President Tinubu’s broader vision for a united Southwest ahead of the 2027 general elections. The President is not likely to favor cronyism or parochial interests over competence and party unity. If Tinubu didn’t impose a candidate in Edo, there’s little chance he will in Osun. His focus is on delivering electoral victory, not rewarding political loyalty for its own sake.
Osun APC has a narrow window of opportunity to regroup and re-strategize. This is not the time for zoning, godfatherism, favoritism, or sentimentality. People will not be easily influenced by ethnics, religion, or zones. It’s a time for deep political reflection, grassroots engagement, and putting forward a candidate that can genuinely challenge Governor Ademola Adeleke and reclaim Osun for the APC. The Edo example should serve as both a warning and a guide.
Just like in chess, politics is not about the piece you’re fond of, it is about the move that can win the game. Osun APC need to forget zoning as their best alternative, they must re-strategize, and Edo template is a good one tweak and use for victory.
Maxwell Adeyemi Adeleye is a Strategic Communications Expert based in London, United Kingdom. He wrote in via Maxwelladeleye@gmail.com.