Putin’s Russia ‘only a matter of time’ from another Novichok-type attack, says ex-minister

Vladimir Putin’s Russia could be edging towards another Novichok-type attack, with former defence minister Tobias Ellwood warning it is “only a matter of time” before a prominent figure is targeted. The former chairman of the Commons Defence Committee issued the chilling warning as he said Moscow was increasingly exploiting the “grey area” between conventional warfare and covert operations.

Mr Ellwood said Russia could use a mixture of cyberattacks, sabotage, coercion and poisoning to destabilise Britain without provoking a full-scale confrontation with the West. He said: “This is a lovely grey area that Putin has become a specialist at.”

Mr Ellwood warned that the Russian president was careful not to cross a line that could trigger a direct conflict or jeopardise his relationship with Donald Trump.

He said: “He knows he doesn’t want to escalate or risk losing his friendship with America if anything went too far.”

But Mr Ellwood said Moscow could instead exploit vulnerabilities inside Britain through methods that are cheaper, harder to attribute and capable of sowing division.

He continued: “It’s also a lot cheaper to interfere with our economy and get us arguing with each other.

“That can be done through disinformation, the internet, cyberattacks, and so forth, alongside the occasional act of sabotage, coercion, and probably poisoning too.”

He then delivered his starkest warning, saying another Novichok-type incident could eventually strike a prominent individual.

Mr Ellwood said: “I mean, it’s horrible to say this, but I think it’s only a matter of time before a dignitary, a personality, or someone else is targeted in another Novichok-type situation.”

In 2018 Russian agents targeted former double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia with the deadly nerve agent in Salisbury. The pair survived, but Dawn Sturgess, who lived in nearby Amesbury, died after her boyfriend unwittingly gave her a perfume bottle containing the substance, which had been discarded by the assassins.

The warning comes as Mr Ellwood argued that Britain needs to wake up to a new form of warfare in which hostile states can operate below the threshold of open conflict.

He said: “The world is getting more dangerous, and we’ve still got our heads in the sand.”

Mr Ellwood said Russian operatives and sleeper agents remained a serious concern in Britain, describing how people had rented cottages overlooking a nuclear submarine base and monitored boats.

He also pointed to the activities of the GRU, Russia’s military intelligence service, and said Britain had become less capable of conducting the intelligence work needed to counter such operations since the end of the Cold War.

Mr Ellwood said: “That’s the type of warfare we’re talking about, and we are not ready for it. We’re not geared for it at all.”

He warned that Britain’s openness could itself make the country vulnerable, with hostile states able to recruit people to carry out operations without those individuals necessarily understanding who was behind them.

Mr Ellwood said: “There are enough sad individuals out there whose lives aren’t going well who would take $15,000 or $20,000 to go off and do something.”

He described the use of such “mules” as a way for hostile governments to distance themselves from attacks.

Mr Ellwood said: “That distances the people who are actually behind the threat by using mules.”

He also raised concerns over the cyberattack on Jaguar Land Rover, which he said was “clearly from Russia”, and the prospect of British technology being used by Ukraine in attacks deep inside Russian territory.

The former minister said Russia’s departure from some established diplomatic and intelligence arrangements with Britain, alongside the sharing of intelligence about the UK, could further increase the pressure on Moscow to retaliate.

His warning paints a disturbing picture of a conflict in which Britain may face attacks without ever being formally at war — and where the next target could be a household name.