.Expects early turbulence to fade within a year
Nigeria could face a fresh wave of public protests as newly enacted tax measures begin to affect households and businesses, with resistance expected to test political stability in the early months before easing within a year.
SBM Intelligence, an Africa-focused market/security consulting firm in its ‘The Year Ahead 2026’ outlook report, projects that protests are likely to emerge once the real impact of the new tax framework becomes clearer. While the firm expects the government to deploy significant political will to enforce compliance, it notes that public pushback may intensify before implementation challenges gradually subside by the end of 2026.
“Protests are expected to emerge as new tax laws take effect, and their effects become clearer,” the report says, noting that initial compliance challenges are likely to ease as enforcement systems stabilise.
The outlook comes as Nigeria prepares to implement four landmark tax laws signed by President Bola Tinubu in June 2025. Expert say the measures are aimed at simplifying administration, widening the tax base, and easing the burden on small businesses, while boosting non-oil revenue and strengthening fiscal sustainability.
The new laws – the Nigeria Tax Act, Nigeria Tax Administration Act, Nigeria Revenue Service Act, and Joint Revenue Board Act – consolidate more than 60 separate taxes into a unified framework, introduce digital filing systems, and exempt small businesses with an annual turnover below N50 million. The government estimates the changes could lift non-oil revenue by about 30 percent over the medium term.
Economists and industry players, however, caution that policy shifts affecting taxes often face social resistance in Nigeria, particularly when introduced amid high living costs and weak public trust in institutions.
“We pay too many unexplainable taxes, taxes that don’t exist anywhere else in the world,” said Obiora Okonkwo, CEO of United Nigeria Airlines. “Our operational costs are enormous, and these multiple levies are a major reason flights are expensive in Nigeria.”
Nigeria has a long history of protest movements linked to economic policy shifts, including fuel subsidy removals, exchange-rate adjustments, and tariff increases. Such protests often originate in major urban centres and spread rapidly through social media, especially among young people grappling with unemployment and rising living costs.
The protest risk is part of a broader pattern of youth-led economic dissent across Africa, with recent tax-related demonstrations in Kenya forcing policy reversals. In Nigeria, fragile trust in government institutions, uneven enforcement capacity, and existing security pressures could amplify early resistance to the new tax measures.
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics in December 2025 show that headline inflation eased to 14.45 percent in November, its lowest level in several years, while year-on-year food inflation declined to 11.08 percent. On a month-on-month basis, however, food prices rose by 1.13 percent, driven by higher costs of staples such as dried tomatoes, cassava, and eggs.
Despite the recent moderation, the 12-month average inflation rate remained elevated at 20.76 percent, reflecting the cumulative strain of persistently high prices on household budgets.
At the same time, Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio has climbed to about 13.5 percent in 2025, up from below 10 percent in previous years, signalling improved revenue mobilisation but also heightening sensitivity around the expansion of the tax net.
Opposition groups have already begun framing the measures as punitive, warning of organised resistance if implementation proceeds without broader consultation. Chille Igbawua, spokesperson for the National Opposition Movement, described the framework as “anti-people,” arguing that it places additional pressure on citizens already struggling with rising costs of living.
“This is not a tax reform; it is an assault on the livelihood of ordinary Nigerians,” Igbawua said, adding that the group would work with citizens to resist the measures if the government insists on pushing ahead.
Concerns have also surfaced in the legislature. A representative from the Kankia/Ingawa/Kusada Federal Constituency raised the issue on the floor of the House of Representatives, urging authorities to reconsider elements that could disproportionately affect small businesses and low-income earners.
Protests driven by economic grievances can quickly intersect with Nigeria’s broader insecurity challenges if not carefully managed. Heavy-handed enforcement risks escalating peaceful demonstrations into wider unrest.
Still, analysts remain cautiously optimistic that resistance could taper off as taxpayers adjust to the new system and digitalisation reduces friction. Clearer rules, fewer overlapping taxes, and visible improvements in public services funded by higher revenues, they say, will be critical to sustaining public buy-in.
As Nigeria heads into 2026, the new tax regime represents both a fiscal turning point and a social test one that will determine whether reform momentum can be sustained without deepening public discontent.