If 2024 was Seplat’s year of massive capital gains, then 2025 must have been a year of cautious optimism.
The company closed 2025 with a 1.94% share price gain, a result that appeared muted in a year when the Nigerian Exchange All-Share Index advanced by more than 50%.
Yet relative performance tells a more nuanced story.
While the broader market surged, the Oil and Gas Sector Index declined by 1.54%, allowing Seplat Energy to outperform its immediate peers in a challenging sector.
That measured progress gave way to renewed momentum almost immediately in the new year.
Within the first trading week of 2026, Seplat’s shares reached a new 52-week high of N6,171, delivering a 6.2% year-to-date gain and surpassing its full-year 2025 return in a matter of days.
The catalyst was clear.
Heirs Energies acquired Maurel & Prom S.A.’s entire 20.07% stake in Seplat, representing 120.4 million shares, for approximately $500 million at £3.05 per share. The transaction, executed by Heirs Energies under the leadership of Tony Elumelu, carried implications well beyond a simple change in shareholding.
The market interpreted the deal as a long-term endorsement of Seplat’s strategy and asset base, and the share price adjusted accordingly.
The central issue now is whether this early-year rally can be sustained by fundamentals rather than sentiment. On that score, recent financial performance provides a strong foundation.
Between 2020 and 2024, Seplat generated cumulative revenues of N3.2 trillion, with a record N1.65 trillion posted in 2024, prior to the consolidation of Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited’s offshore assets.
In the first nine months of 2025, the company reported N3.36 trillion in revenue, representing a 213% increase year-on-year and exceeding the combined revenue of the preceding five years.
Profitability at the operating level expanded at a similar pace. Profit before tax rose to N879 billion from N367 billion in the corresponding period of 2024.
Post-tax profit, however, declined to N147 billion as tax liabilities absorbed a significant portion of earnings. Total tax charges reached N732 billion, including N704 billion in current tax expense, creating a notable divergence between pre-tax and net profit.
Despite this, shareholder returns remained robust. Earnings per share increased by 144% to N240.18, while dividends declared by the third quarter of 2025 amounted to 167 cents per share, or approximately N157 billion in aggregate.
In the context of the Nigerian Exchange, this positions Seplat among the more consistent dividend payers in the energy sector.
In the context of the Nigerian Exchange, this positions Seplat among the more consistent dividend payers in the energy sector.
Operationally, the revenue expansion was driven primarily by higher oil volumes. Crude oil sales reached N3.1 trillion, up 231% from the prior year, reflecting the integration of MPNU’s offshore assets, which added more than 80,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
Seplat’s well-restoration programme contributed an additional 33,400 barrels per day. Even with realised oil prices declining by 13%, total lifted volumes increased to 27.9 million barrels, representing a 270% rise year-on-year.
Gas operations provided stability and incremental growth. Gas revenue increased to N215 billion, supported by consistent production from Oben and Sapele, alongside initial LPG sales from the Bonny terminal.
The introduction of natural gas liquids as a distinct revenue line generated N51 billion from LPG exports and condensates, improving both diversification and margin resilience.
Looking ahead, management has articulated a clear medium-term strategy. At its Capital Markets Day in September 2025, Seplat outlined plans to increase production to 200,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2030, supported by capital expenditure of $2.5–$3 billion.
The company is targeting $5–$6 billion in free cash flow over the period, alongside a reduction in operating costs to $10 per barrel from $14.10.
Capital allocation remains a central pillar of this strategy. Seplat revised its dividend policy in 2025 to permit up to two special dividends annually in addition to a base dividend.
Management is targeting $1 billion in cumulative dividends by 2030, while maintaining net leverage within a 0.5x to 1.5x range. These plans are based on conservative assumptions, including oil prices of $65 per barrel, NGL prices of $39 per barrel, and gas prices of $2.75 per thousand cubic feet.
Seplat’s evolution from a mid-sized onshore producer to a diversified upstream and gas company with an offshore scale is increasingly evident. The Heirs Energies transaction has reinforced that trajectory and sharpened investors focus on the company’s long-term potential.
Sustaining the current valuation, however, will depend on disciplined execution. Delivering growth while managing costs, taxes, and capital commitments will be critical.
If Seplat can meet these objectives, the recent rally may prove to be less a speculative response and more a reflection of a structurally stronger company.