The United States swung to a $1.45 billion goods trade surplus with Nigeria in the first ten months of 2025, reversing a deficit position from the same period of last year, as a sharp rise in American exports combined with weaker imports from Nigeria, according to data from the US Census Bureau.
Between January and October 2025, US goods exports to Nigeria climbed to $5.94 billion, while imports fell to $4.49 billion, leaving a positive balance of $1.45 billion in Washington’s favour.
This contrasted with the $1.367 billion deficit recorded in the corresponding period of 2024, marking a decisive turnaround in bilateral trade flows.
The shift was visible both cumulatively and on a monthly basis. In October 2025 alone, the US posted a $162 million trade surplus with Nigeria, exporting $532 million worth of goods and importing $369 million.
This exceeded the $116 million surplus recorded in September, representing a month-on-month improvement of $46 million, or nearly 40%.
The wider surplus, however, did not come from stronger monthly export volumes.
Between September and October, US exports to Nigeria declined by $124 million, or 18.9%, while imports from Nigeria dropped by a steeper $171 million, or 31.7%.
The sharper contraction in imports widened the US surplus despite lower exports.
Year-on-year figures highlight the scale of the reversal.
In October 2024, the US ran a $103 million deficit with Nigeria, exporting $295 million and importing $398 million.
By October 2025, this had flipped to a $162 million surplus. Over that period, US exports rose by $237 million, or 80.3%, while imports slipped by $29 million, or 7.3%, pointing to export growth as the main driver of the turnaround.
On a cumulative basis, US exports to Nigeria jumped from $3.71 billion in the first ten months of 2024 to $5.94 billion in 2025, an increase of $2.23 billion or 60.2%.
Imports moved in the opposite direction, falling from $5.07 billion to $4.49 billion, a decline of $582 million or 11.5%.
Nigeria’s reversal played a key role in reshaping US-Africa trade dynamics.
While the US still recorded a year-to-date goods trade deficit of $3.74 billion with Africa as a whole, Nigeria emerged as one of the few major economies on the continent where the US posted a sizeable surplus.
Total US exports to Africa reached $34.08 billion in the first ten months of 2025, compared with imports of $37.82 billion.
Total US exports to Africa reached $34.08 billion in the first ten months of 2025, compared with imports of $37.82 billion.
Nigeria accounted for $5.94 billion of those exports, about 17.4% of all US goods shipped to Africa.
On the import side, Nigeria supplied $4.49 billion worth of goods, representing roughly 11.9% of total US imports from the continent.
In October alone, Nigeria made up about 15.6% of US exports to Africa and 12.8% of imports from the region.
More notably, Nigeria contributed around 31% of Africa’s total US trade surplus for the month.
Without Nigeria’s $1.447 billion year-to-date surplus, the overall US trade deficit with Africa would have widened to roughly $5.18 billion, meaning Nigeria offset close to 28% of America’s shortfall with the rest of the continent.
Among selected African partners, only Egypt delivered a larger surplus to the US.
Washington recorded a $5.43 billion surplus with Egypt in 2025, exporting $7.88 billion and importing $2.44 billion.
Nigeria ranked second, ahead of Algeria and South Africa, both of which remained in deficit positions.
South Africa continued to weigh heavily on US-Africa trade, with a year-to-date deficit of $9.22 billion, as US imports of $14.67 billion far outpaced exports of $5.45 billion.
Algeria posted a $1.09 billion deficit, while other African countries combined were close to balance, with a $299 million deficit.
The broader African picture also improved on a monthly basis. In October 2024, the US recorded a $467 million trade deficit with Africa.
By October 2025, that position had shifted to a $523 million surplus, a swing of $990 million within one year.
As with Nigeria, the improvement was driven mainly by reduced imports, which fell from $3.48 billion in September to $2.89 billion in October, while exports eased slightly from $3.59 billion to $3.42 billion.
These trade outcomes unfolded amid renewed protectionist rhetoric and tariff-focused policies under US President Donald Trump, which have influenced sourcing decisions and global trade flows.
The higher duty has introduced uncertainty for American importers and appears to have dampened demand for Nigerian non-oil goods, reinforcing the import decline that underpinned the US surplus.