Nigeria’s exports to the United States declined sharply by N940.98 billion in the first nine months of 2025, highlighting the growing strain on bilateral trade as US tariffs and tougher market conditions weighed on Nigerian shipments, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
An analysis of the NBS foreign trade statistics showed that Nigeria exported goods worth N3.65 trillion to the US between January and September 2025, down from N4.59 trillion in the corresponding period of 2024.
The 20.5% drop in export value reflects weakening demand for Nigerian goods in the US market amid tariff-related headwinds.
The export contraction occurred alongside Washington’s implementation of a so-called “reciprocal” tariff regime. Under the policy, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order raising Nigeria’s tariff rate from 14% to 15%, with the measure taking effect on August 7, 2025.
While crude oil exports have largely been exempted, the higher duty applies to a broad range of non-oil Nigerian exports, increasing costs for US importers and dampening demand.
With crude oil shipments relatively insulated, non-oil exports appear to have borne the brunt of the tariff impact, contributing significantly to the decline in Nigeria’s overall export earnings from the US market.
The nine-month trade figures underline the extent of the reversal in Nigeria–US trade relations.
In the first nine months of 2024, Nigeria exported N4.59 trillion worth of goods to the US and imported N3.01 trillion, resulting in a trade surplus of N1.57 trillion.
By the same period in 2025, exports had fallen to N3.65 trillion, while imports surged to N6.80 trillion, pushing the trade balance into a deficit of about N3.15 trillion.
Quarterly data show that exports opened 2025 on a relatively strong note but weakened rapidly as the year progressed. Exports stood at N1.54 trillion in the first quarter of 2025 before declining to N1.36 trillion in the second quarter and plunging to N743.63 billion in the third quarter.
The 45.3% quarter-on-quarter collapse in the third quarter marked the steepest contraction in shipments to the US during the period under review.
Imports moved in the opposite direction, rising from N1.42 trillion in the first quarter to N2.16 trillion in the second quarter, before surging further to N3.22 trillion in the third quarter, intensifying pressure on Nigeria’s trade position.
On a year-on-year basis, exports to the US grew by 17.7% in the first quarter of 2025 compared with the same period of 2024, but the trend reversed sharply thereafter. Exports declined by 14.3% in the second quarter and plunged by 56.0% in the third quarter, reflecting weaker demand and more challenging trade conditions.
The sharp contraction in export earnings explains why the United States dropped out of Nigeria’s top five export destinations by the second and third quarters of 2025, despite remaining one of Nigeria’s largest sources of imports.
Product-level data from the NBS further highlight the imbalance. In the first quarter of 2025, Nigeria’s exports to the US were dominated by crude petroleum oils valued at N779.38 billion, followed by urea at N240.17 billion and kerosene-type jet fuel at N214.30 billion.
Other export items included petroleum gases in gaseous state valued at N95.97 billion and standard quality cocoa beans at N58.84 billion.
Other export items included petroleum gases in gaseous state valued at N95.97 billion and standard quality cocoa beans at N58.84 billion.
By the third quarter of 2025, Nigeria’s export basket to the US had narrowed significantly, consisting mainly of smaller-value items such as flours and meals of soya beans valued at N23.60 billion, cocoa powder preparations worth N36.83 million, and technically specified natural rubber valued at N5.03 billion.
The shift in America’s trade balance with Nigeria comes against the backdrop of new U.S. tariff measures on African partners. Beginning August 7, 2025, Washington implemented “reciprocal tariffs” under a revised schedule that set Nigeria’s country rate at 15%.