By Sunday Adelaja
The main argument that both Obi and Atiku are pursuing in court is that the elections were rigged. The worst thing that could happen against Tinubu in court is that the court will cancel the results of the elections in those particular polling units where rigging have been established.
Before I go on to prove my point why Tinubu will emerge victorious in court battles, let me state categorically what my beliefs are in regards to these past elections.
I personally believe that there were irregularities or even outright rigging in some parts of the nation. Although if compared to all elections since our return to democracy I strongly believe these are our best elections by far. These riggings in my belief were perpetrated by adherents of all the leading political parties. I don’t personally think that the head of these parties were involved in the malpractices, it’s physically impossible for any one of them to know what each and every one of their followers were doing behind their back.
Nevertheless, I don’t think that the irregularities by any of the parties are enough to alter the end result of the elections, in my personal observations I think the will of the people was expressed in the results that INEC declared.
I actually think all major political parties believe in this too. If not they won’t have gone ahead to accept the certificates of elections issued by INEC to their senators and House of Representatives members.
Atiku and Obi are smart people, they know they better accept the positions in parliament now before they completely lose out after the court proceedings. Both Atiku and Obi failed to win 25%, in 2/3 of our 36 states, which means only Tinubu is qualified by our constitution to become president even if Obi or Atiku get 100 million votes added to their present votes. They’ll still not be qualified to become president unless they cover 2/3 of our country. Which unfortunately they failed to get. So these gentlemen know they don’t stand a chance, I assume that going to court for them isn’t for victory, it’s more to palate their followers and to save face.
If you doubt the credibility of the elections why accept the results that the same INEC declared in favor of your parties at parliament level elections. There is a lot of hypocrisy exposed right there.
Let’s now assume that these parties are only disputing the presidential elections, then I’ll challenge them that a simple analysis of the parliamentary elections will also show us who won the presidential elections. Out of 98 senators that were elected alongside the president 57 senators were from APC, the rest belong to 7 other parties. Of 325 representatives elected APC has 162. Again the rest are shared by the other 7 parties. If you just calculate which party truly controls the heart and soul of Nigeria, it’s obvious that it’s APC.
It’s only logical that most of these people who voted for these APC parliamentarians also voted for the APC presidential flag bearer. A rather simple logic. In countries with a parliamentary system it’ll be these people who will elect the head of government, in this case they won’t even need a coalition with any other party.
Another point that renders useless the attempt by other parties to go to court is that, let’s assume that the court overturns the elections results and installs either Atiku or Obi.
What do you think will follow?
Your guess is as good as mine, with a simple majority votes in both chambers of parliament the APC will easily impeach the President or at least paralyze the function and running of government.
It therefore makes no sense at all for Atiku or Obi to try to retake the presidency without a control of the parliament.
Now, let’s go back to my main argument in this article, which is the fact that Atiku and Obi are surely going to lose the court battles.
Like I said earlier, the worse thing the court could do is to cancel elections where Tinubu won or had a considerable advantage. My point is even if this happens, still Tinubu will remain the President.
Do you know that if the court finds APC guilty and decides to remove Bola Tinubu’s total vote from all of Southwest which equals over two million votes (2,279,107) from Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo and Ekiti States, Tinubu will still remain President. Of course this is an extreme scenario I’m painting here, which will not happen by any means.
But even if it happens, Tinubu will still remain President.
Remember that the total votes Tinubu got is over 8 million votes, specifically 8,794,726. So if all the votes from his stronghold of Southwest is removed from him Bola Tinubu will still be left with 6,515,619 far higher than Peter Obi’s total votes of 6,101,533.
Someone could say, yes Tinubu’s votes are still more than that of Obi but not more than those of Atiku so Atiku would probably be declared the President. No sir, remember whenever an election is annulled it doesn’t only affect the guilty party, all parties in that polling unit lose all their votes likewise. So if the Southwest election results are disallowed it’ll be the same for PDP, Labour etc.
Now let’s look at what happens if the votes in the Southeast are found to be rigged, then Peter Obi loses out completely, because those results are his main votes, while Tinubu’s position only gets stronger. If the elections in Atiku’s stronghold are found to be compromised and the votes are canceled, Atiku and Obi will still be the losers, while Tinubu will still win and remain the President of Nigeria.
Now, let’s look at another scenario supposedly against Tinubu; If we remove the total votes of 1,362,556 that Bola Tinubu scored in Ekiti, Ondo, Ogun and Oyo State where he won in the South West, Osun State is missing here because it was won by Atiku. Let’s remove all states where Asiwaju won from his total vote from across the federation, he would still have 7,432,170 votes left, enough to beat Atiku’s 6,984,520. Bola Tinubu would still have 25 percent in 25 states to still be declared the winner of The February 25 Presidential Elections!
It gets even more intriguing if we go to the extreme of what any decision against Tinubu could be in court. If the court cancels half of all states won by Asiwaju and he is only left with 6 states out of 12, he will still emerge as the President of Nigeria. Yes, what I’m saying is that Tinubu will still remain the President even with only 6 states.
Tinubu could have won outrightly in JUST 6 STATES of the federation and still would have WON the election!! Now you read that well: just outright win in 6 states would have been enough!
Dear reader, please go do the maths at home by yourself if you flip all the following states, where Bola came first and make him come second, that is switch the total votes between first and second, your result will still be a win for Bola Hamed Tinubu. The States in consideration are: JIGAWA, ZAMFARA, KWARA, BENUE, EKITI, AND RIVERS! With all of these states flipped Bola will still win by 1m votes over Atiku and 2.2m votes over Peter and still achieve the 25% mandatory in about 25 states or more! (To read more on these calculations search for the writings of Dr Wunmi Akintide and Peter Adeshina Babalola, these two gentlemen have done a good analysis on that)
Talking about rigging I think it makes sense to here refer to the words of Reno Omokri.
According to Omokri, Obi was the rigger-in-chief of the presidential election.
He claimed that: “Tinubu did intelligent rigging. At least he used his conscience to give small votes to other candidates. Peter Obi’s rigging was so unintelligent.
“In the history of Nigeria, when and where have you heard of a candidate getting 97% in some areas in the SE?
“The Peter Obi that is shouting everywhere that he was rigged out is saying nothing of those areas in the SE where he got 97% of the votes.
“Where else did that happen during Nigerian Elections2023? Yes, this election was rigged. But Obi was the main rigger-in-chief!” Reno Omokri.
Really this whole thing about going to court is simply playing out the script. Frankly speaking where will you find losers in Africa that’ll admit that he lost, apart from Goodluck Jonathan. I told those who cared to listen before the presidential elections that Obi will loose and then all his followers will be screaming that the elections have been rigged. The same thing will happen this time too, after they lose in court, they will again say the court system is corrupt and that’s why they lost. You wait and see, they’ll again play out the script unfortunately. Arrogant and sore losers always do this throughout history, nothing is new under the sun.
In short I am sorry to seem like I’m dashing the hope of our beloved Obidients and Atikulateds. These are only my analysis. Who am I anyway, I’m not a judge neither am I a prophet or the son of a prophet, yet I’ve discovered that a simple common sense a times are more valuable that the so called prophetic gymnastics on our pulpits these days.
As for those who are still daydreaming that the court will overturn the elections, get Tinubu arrested, installment of an interim government and declare Obi as the winner. Please go and get rid of that nonsense from your brain. Those are the so called prophetic revelations of some self deceived and deluded Pastors and Bishops. Those men you call your fathers in the Lord have long lost connection with God. Their words are never to be taken seriously. In fact if those big men if God tell you that they see something just go do the opposite. If they tell you go to the right, just turn to the left you’ll end up being correct.
Tinubu is the next President of The Federal Republic Of Nigeria, period! Deal with it and have peace of mind.
These incredible results of Tinubu that cuts across all of our wide nation is a result of close to 40 years if hard work. This cannot be dislodged by a 9 months of campaign or movement. It’s not possible, God is a God of systems, order and processes. God will not contradict himself, even a thousand false prophets won’t alter that. The relationships of a lifetime by Asiwaju is more reliable than overnight national mobilization surge by religious desperados who thought of cashing in on Muslim Muslim ticket controversy.
These same pastors and Bishops who had earlier prophesied that Obi will win are now busy crying about elections rigging. Do you mean their God could not factor that in. Are you telling me that elections riggers are now stronger than their God. This only goes without saying that these gods of men don’t have a real living relationship with God Almighty. Their god is their stomach, reputation and empires.
Now some of them are busy praying that Tinubu will die before inauguration. These people are not Christians, what they are practicing is syncretism at best.
God will not support overnight success like that without due process. God is a God of laws and principles, no amount of prayers, confessions or prophecies will change that. Because he has exalted his principles(word) above his names(prayers, wailing etc) Psalms 138:2
“I will worship toward thy holy temple, and praise thy name for thy lovingkindness and for thy truth: for thou hast magnified thy word above all thy name.”
I rest my case here!
May Nigeria Succeed And May All Her Haters Live Long To Witness It.
For The Love Of God, Church And Nation
Dr. Sunday ADELAJA