The World Bank has raised its outlook for Nigeria’s economy, projecting 4.4 per cent growth in 2026, up from its earlier estimate of 3.7 per cent. This revision puts Africa’s largest economy on course for its strongest expansion in more than a decade.
In its latest Global Economic Prospects report released on Tuesday, the multilateral lender also upgraded Nigeria’s 2027 growth forecast to 4.4 per cent, from 3.8 per cent previously, and said the economy likely expanded by 4.2 per cent in 2025, well above its earlier estimate of 3.6 per cent.
The revised projections reflect stronger-than-expected performance in Nigeria’s services sector, modest recovery in agriculture, and the country’s emergence as a net exporter of refined petroleum products, the Bank said.
While oil remains a key revenue source, the World Bank noted that recent growth has been increasingly driven by finance, information and communication technology, and other service-based activities — signalling a gradual broadening of the economy.
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The lender said ongoing fiscal and tax reforms, alongside tight monetary policy, are expected to support economic activity by improving investor confidence and easing inflationary pressures. Higher crude oil output is also expected to help offset softer global oil prices, bolstering government revenues and Nigeria’s external position.
However, the Bank cautioned that sustaining the momentum will depend on tackling long-standing structural weaknesses, particularly weak fiscal discipline and institutional capacity, which have historically undermined Nigeria’s ability to manage oil revenue volatility.
Globally, the World Bank raised its 2026 growth forecast to 2.6 per cent, from 2.4 per cent, citing stronger-than-expected performance in advanced economies — especially the United States. Growth is projected at 2.7 per cent in 2027, slightly higher than earlier estimates.
Despite the improved outlook, the Bank warned that global growth remains uneven and is unlikely to significantly reduce extreme poverty, with the 2020s shaping up to be the weakest decade for global growth since the 1960s.
Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy is projected to expand by 4.3 per cent in 2026 and 4.5 per cent in 2027, supported by stronger domestic demand and easing inflation, though income gaps with advanced economies are expected to persist.
World Bank economists stressed that rising public debt across developing economies makes fiscal credibility and enforcement increasingly urgent, warning that resilience without productivity gains could strain public finances and credit markets over time.