2025 Crude Oil Forecast : NNPCL May Cut Crude Supply To Dangote Plant With 2 New Refineries Operations

Both refineries currently operate at a combined capacity of about 135,000 barrels per day. The plants, managed by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, commenced operations recently after years of neglect by successive governments, preferring fuel imports.

It was gathered that the planned reduction of crude to the Dangote refinery was also predicated on the necessity to ensure a sufficient supply of crude to all refineries.

This is aimed at boosting competition in the downstream sector, with the government facilitating this through the naira-for-crude initiative. Before the initiative, the government used to allocate about 445,000 barrels per day of crude to domestic refineries operated by NNPCL.

Impeccable sources knowledgeable about the development disclosed the planned slash in crude supply to the Dangote refinery during a chat with our correspondent on Wednesday.

One of the sources who did not want to be mentioned because he was not permitted to speak with the press, confirmed to The PUNCH that, “It is clear that crude allocation to Dangote refinery and other local refineries will be reduced because all our refineries are coming back. Old Port Harcourt is working. New Port Harcourt is almost done. Warri just joined last week. “
Last year, the Federal Executive Council adopted a proposal by President Bola Tinubu to sell crude to the Dangote refinery and other

upcoming refineries in the local currency.

FEC approved that the 450,000 barrels meant for domestic consumption be offered in naira to Nigerian refineries, using the Dangote refinery as a pilot.

Similarly, other refineries with lower capacity were scheduled to receive allocations.
Findings showed that the $20bn Lekki-based plant was allocated about 300,000 barrels per day out of the 450,000bpd approved by the government.

The agreement was designed to last six months in the first instance, pending further review by the Technical Sub-Committee on Domestic Sales of Crude Oil in Local Currency.

However, this agreement will undergo slight adjustments following the commencement of refining operations at the 210,000PortHarcourt refinery and the 125,000 Warri refinery.

The source stressed that the only solution to the impending crude supply cut was for oil production to improve.
The official added, “Warri is now onstream, too, and Kaduna is coming. So the current share of those 450,000 barrels will now be shared between all of them. Remember also that the BUA refinery is coming.

“So, it is very likely that the 300,000 barrels the Dangote refinery is getting currently will be reduced. The formula for how it would be shared is still sketchy, but it is almost certain that it would be reduced. NNPCL won’t deprive itself of crude oil.

“At least, if Port Harcourt will get 50,000 barrels. Other refineries’ share will be reduced to 250,000. New Port Harcourt will come. Warri, too, is still there. So the only solution to this thing is to increase production, which the government is working hard on.”

The government had redirected crude allocation of 445,000 barrels formerly disbursed to the Warri, Kaduna, and Port Harcourt refineries following their shutdown to the Dangote refinery.

The official also stated that the government has stopped selling its crude on credit to local refineries for improved revenue collection.

“Another issue now is that the government will no longer sell its crude on a credit basis. You would have to pay before you can pick up crude products. The refiners are not happy about it, but revenue to the government is also important.”

The Dangote refinery may fall back on crude oil import, which is subject to international pricing.
Commenting on the latest development, the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria stated that the initiative was an intervention designed to address the foreign exchange market volatility and drive down the retail price of petrol, which has been achieved.

The CORAN Publicity Secretary, Eche Idoko, in an interview, however, argued that the coming onstream of the Warri and Port Harcourt refineries is not expected to cut down allocation to local refineries.

He said, “The naira for the crude agreement was purely an intervention at the time to boost local production and then provide some cushion from the volatility of the foreign exchange market. It wasn’t so much about the crude but the FX.