2025 is projected to have one of the worst Octobers at the box office since Rush Hour was in theaters. While the month has seen several titles become solid successes, including Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl and Blumhouse’s Black Phone 2, it has largely been dominated by disappointments such as Tron: Ares, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, and The Smashing Machine.
Per The Hollywood Reporter, as of October 30, the month is projected to end with an overall domestic box office total of $425 million. This will mark the worst October of the 21st century so far other than 2020, when global theatrical shutdowns amid the COVID-19 pandemic saw domestic theaters only taking in $63.4 million.
While THR reports that 2025 is expected to have the worst non-2020 October since 1997, Box Office Mojo‘s chart of October domestic performance shows that the last time any October has grossed less than $425 million was 1998 ($422.3 million), when the highest-grossing movies were the animated feature Antz, the original Rush Hour, and the Robin Williams vehicle What Dreams May Come.
Including 2020 and 2025, only six Octobers in the first quarter of the 21st century have grossed less than $500 million. This roster includes 2000 ($450.5 million), 2001 ($486.7 million), 2022 ($469.1 million), and 2024 ($463.3 million). The century has so far peaked with October 2018, which earned $830.8 million off the back of hits such as Venom, A Star is Born, and Halloween.
While horror and horror-adjacent titles such as Black Phone 2, September’s The Conjuring: Last Rites, and the anime hit Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc have performed well throughout October 2025, the month has been marked by more or less non-stop disappointments.
While 2025’s Tron: Ares was never a guaranteed success, as it is a sequel to two cult classics that weren’t box office juggernauts, it is has underperformed spectacularly, potentially losing Disney $132.7 million by the end of its run.
Other movies that had tentpole potential were the early awards plays The Smashing Machine and Deliver Me from Nowhere. The two biopics, which depict the lives of Mark Kerr (Dwayne Johnson) and Bruce Springsteen (Jeremy Allen White) respectively, both reportedly cost roughly $50 million and have so far grossed less than $12 million apiece in North America.
Additionally, while mid-level releases have performed better in 2025 outside of October, the mid-level titles debuting around these splashier disappointments have largely had lukewarm commercial results.
This includes the Channing Tatum drama Roofman ($19.9 million at the time of writing), the Colleen Hoover romance Regretting You ($17 million), the television adaptation Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie ($16.1 million), and the Aziz Ansari comedy Good Fortune ($12.6 million).
Ultimately, it is likely that the 2025 box office will recover thanks to impending releases such as November’s Wicked: For Good and Zootopia as well as December’s Avatar: Fire and Ash and Five Nights at Freddy’s 2. However, this slump could be a sign that future Octobers should focus on genre releases, better-performing IP, and non-biopic awards plays with broader commercial appeal.
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