2027: Analyst Warns Anti-Tinubu Coalition to Build Strategy, Not Just Sentiment

Analyst has warned Anti-Tinubu Coalition to build strategy and avoid sentiments.

 

As momentum gathers ahead of Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election, political analyst and Executive Director of Development Specs Academy, Prof. Okey Ikechukwu, has cautioned opposition leaders and parties forming a coalition under the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to prioritize political structure and strategic planning over sentiment and public discontent.

 

In an exclusive interview, Ikechukwu raised pressing concerns over the ability of the emerging coalition which includes former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Labour Party’s Peter Obi, and former Transport Minister Rotimi Amaechi  to present a unified front capable of unseating the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

 

 

Three Aspirants, One Ticket — Who Will Step Down?

 

With at least three prominent figures reportedly eyeing the ADC presidential ticket, the analyst posed a key question: Who will step down for the other? He warned that without clear resolution on the issue, the coalition risks internal collapse before reaching the general election.

 

Obi and Amaechi have both hinted at running for a single term, aligning with calls for the presidency to remain in the South until 2031. President Bola Tinubu, also a southerner, is expected to seek re-election in 2027, making the political dynamics even more complex.

 

Obidient Movement: Strong Online, Weak on Ground

 

Prof. Ikechukwu praised the enthusiasm of the Obidient Movement, driven largely by young Nigerians rallying behind Peter Obi, but warned that online popularity alone will not secure electoral victory.

 

“There are no polling booths on the internet,” he said. “The votes are cast at physical locations, manned by agents and backed by structured party networks. Without building real political structures on the ground, the Obidient Movement will once again ‘participate’ in 2027, but not truly contest.”

 

He advised the movement to refine its “we no dey give shishi” stance, urging a clear distinction between refraining from vote-buying and failing to fund essential campaign logistics.

 

PDP’s Internal Crisis and the Anyanwu Controversy

 

Commenting on the reinstatement of Senator Samuel Anyanwu as National Secretary of the PDP, Ikechukwu said the decision may further alienate the party’s South-East base. He recalled a similar episode in 2019, when Atiku Abubakar selected Peter Obi as his running mate, only for South-East PDP leaders to disown the decision.

 

He described the PDP as a party that has long “imploded” and is now only “pretending” to have internal cohesion.

 

“The PDP will participate in 2027, but I doubt it will contest,” he said. “Contesting means having the capacity and strategy to win — something the PDP currently lacks.”

 

Coalition Faces Trust Deficit and Ideological Conflicts

 

Ikechukwu expressed skepticism over the viability of the ADC-led coalition, pointing to the absence of a shared ideology and past rivalries among its key players. He questioned the coalition’s failure to engage stakeholders at the grassroots level.

 

“You want to form a coalition at the top and, with it, rule Nigeria? That’s problem number one,” he remarked. “These leaders are more likely to argue about positions — who gets VP — than present credible policy alternatives to Nigerians.”

 

On Governor Mbah and Political Defections

 

Addressing rumors of Enugu State Governor Peter Mbah’s defection from the PDP to the APC, Ikechukwu acknowledged that while such a move could damage his credibility, ideological shifts are not uncommon in Nigerian politics.

 

“If someone wants to defect, ask why. What’s wrong with the party they’re leaving?” he added, urging parties to address internal failings before blaming defectors.

 

Peter Obi’s Challenge: Convert Potential into Power

 

Ikechukwu acknowledged Peter Obi’s national appeal but insisted that popularity must translate into practical capacity to win.

 

“Obi has millions of supporters, yes — but did those votes count where it mattered? Without agents, structures, and ground-level strategy, the 2023 experience will repeat itself,” he said. “If you set a mousetrap to catch a chimpanzee, you may trap it — but you’ll lose both the trap and the meat.”

 

He stressed the importance of funding operational needs, coordinating volunteers, and building a cohesive campaign framework from ward to national level.

 

Recommendations for the Coalition and APC

Ikechukwu offered a roadmap for the opposition coalition:

1. Define its ideological mission.
2. Develop a clear zoning structure for top positions.
3. Establish grassroots engagement from ward to national level.
4. Articulate policy alternatives, not just anti-Tinubu rhetoric.

 

On the APC’s part, he warned against complacency, advising the ruling party to focus on policy delivery and grassroots connection rather than celebrating mass defections without strategic integration.

 

“If the APC plans a banquet for 50 but 75 show up, and you haven’t made room, it will descend into chaos,” he noted.

 

He also cautioned that the 2027 political engagement has begun too early, and urged APC leaders to focus less on early campaign jostling and more on governance delivery.

 

Prof. Ikechukwu concluded by stressing that anger and online applause are not substitutes for political structure, strategy, and substance. “This is not a popularity contest. It is a battle of ideas, structures, and readiness. If you want to replace APC, prepare — and prepare well.”