If former Vice President Atiku Abubakar thought the widespread discontent in the country — especially the supposed northern opposition to the administration of President Bola Tinubu — would be a clear path to Aso Rock, the emerging internal and external complications suggest far more serious challenges.
In 2025, the former vice president defected to the African Democratic Congress (ADC) along with his political associates and supporters, where he quickly took control of the party’s machinery.
He also donated his former presidential campaign office to the ADC, cementing his status as a leading contender for the party’s presidential ticket.
Yet it is not altogether smooth for the former number two in the country. The Peter Obi factor looms large and threatens not only Atiku’s emergence as the ADC presidential candidate but also his prospects of unseating President Tinubu in the 2027 election.
Obi, who was Atiku’s vice presidential candidate in 2019 and secured the Labour Party ticket in the 2023 election, joined the ADC in late 2025 in hopes of winning the party’s presidential ticket.
The former Anambra governor has said explicitly that any expectation that Atiku will persuade him to be a vice-presidential candidate is futile, further complicating what might have been a formidable alliance against President Tinubu.
At a December event, Obi said, “I am not traveling round the world to learn governance to be vice president,” emphasizing that, “Peter Obi will be on the ballot in 2027. I need your support. I need your prayers.”
The former Labour Party presidential candidate is under intense pressure not to accept a vice-presidential slot from his close political associates, supporters, and his largest support base, the Obidient Movement, which emerged strongly during the 2023 presidential election.
One of Obi’s closest political allies, Pat Utomi, has also warned he would withdraw his support if Obi becomes Atiku’s running mate. Utomi, a respected political economist and founder of the Centre for Values and Leadership, said, “I can tell you that Peter Obi will contest the 2027 presidency.
“The day he becomes somebody’s vice president; I will walk away from his corner.”
Similarly, the National Coordinator of the Obidient Movement Worldwide, Dr. Yunusa Tanks, insisted Obi “will not be a vice-presidential candidate to anyone.”
As if the threat from Peter Obi was not strong enough, there is a political war within Atiku’s own home. The unity the former vice president expected was breached when his son, Abba Atiku Abubakar, joined the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), much to the consternation of both his father and political observers.
Although Atiku dismissed his son’s political shift toward President Tinubu’s camp, saying, “In a democracy, such choices are neither unusual nor alarming, even when family and politics intersect,” some political pundits described Abba’s defection as “a smart move from the APC” and “an indictment on Atiku’s leadership.”
Despite Atiku’s conciliatory tone, his political group, the Atiku Haske Organisation, immediately expelled Abba for defecting to the APC. In a sign of the schism within his political structure, Abba directed coordinators and members of his faction to join the APC and mobilize support for President Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda.
He also announced the renaming of his political structure to the Haske Bola Tinubu Organisation.
But Musa Bakari, initiator and convener of the Atiku Haske Organisation, responded sharply, “We founded the Atiku Haske Organisation, and we merely invited Abba to join the group. Abba has neither contributed a naira to the activities of the group nor possesses the certificate of registration of the group; we are therefore under no obligation or duty to adhere to any directive by him.”
Atiku is also facing renewed calls to honour the spirit of the rotational presidency and allow the South to complete its eight years in office before power returns to the North.
According to the former Director-General of Voice of Nigeria, Mr. Osita Okechukwu, “the Fourth Republic began with a zoning arrangement, conceived by Nigerian patriots to promote unity, oneness, a sense of belonging and equity. It was because of zoning that Alhaji Atiku Abubakar became Vice President in 1999.”
Okechukwu explained that, “In 2014, Atiku walked out of the PDP convention, accusing President [Goodluck] Jonathan of taking the North’s turn. In 2019, when no Southerner contested because of zoning, he won the PDP ticket. In 2023, when it was the South’s turn, he still insisted on contesting, and that was why many Nigerian patriots, both North and South, did not vote for the PDP.”
He warned that undermining the zoning arrangement could have far-reaching consequences, saying, “For the interest of Nigerians, both North and South should allow the APC to complete the tenure of the South in 2031. It will be the turn of the North to present the President, and no Southerner will contest.”
Atiku is also facing stiff opposition from his erstwhile boss, former President Olusegun Obasanjo, who reportedly visited former military ruler Ibrahim Babangida to garner support for Peter Obi’s emergence as the ADC presidential candidate. Obasanjo had previously endorsed Obi in 2023 after breaking with Atiku when their alliance ended following the 2019 election.
While Atiku finished second in the 2023 presidential race with 6,984,520 votes, and Obi placed third with 6,101,533 votes, President Tinubu won with 8,794,726 votes in a highly contested election.
Although there has been political speculation about an Atiku/Obi joint ticket — an idea supported by some in Atiku’s camp — some former leaders like Obasanjo and a segment of the Obidient Movement insist it should be Obi at the top of the ticket or nothing.
This development has compounded Atiku’s challenges. Attempts by his aides and political associates to counter the arguments against him have largely failed.
Dele Momodu, publisher of Ovation magazine and a strong Atiku campaigner, warned in an indirect message to the Peter Obi camp that, “No group or individual will be allowed to cause chaos, like it happened in the PDP, and ADC will enforce discipline.”
He added, “But in recent times, some groups have introduced aggression and rambunctiousness into a fledgling cooperation and collaboration of all.”
He asked, “How can a coalition work if some groups insist they must produce the top ticket by donation and coronation, without election or persuasion? Why unleash tantrums and expletives on one another as if one group can win national elections without the others?”
These complex and competing dynamics have reportedly dampened the enthusiasm within Atiku’s camp. But Momodu remains defiant, affirming Atiku as the candidate to beat as the presidential primaries approach.
Although Atiku has continued to make public comments to reassure his supporters that the “game is not lost,” if current opposition trends are anything to go by, his path to 2027 appears much more challenging than in his previous campaigns.