While I genuinely wish that Mr. Peter Obi would emerge as Nigeria’s president in 2027, saving the nation from the reckless wastefulness that has plagued it since independence, reality tells me otherwise. Obi, despite his refreshing vision and impeccable character, simply doesn’t stand a chance under Nigeria’s current political structure.

What excites me about Obi is his political will, his passion for cutting down the cost of governance, plugging financial leakages, and redirecting our economy toward productivity rather than the endless sharing of “national cake” by the political elite. He embodies the qualities of a disciplined leader who could change Nigeria’s fortunes. Unfortunately, those qualities are the very reasons the entrenched system resists him.

The truth is that Nigeria’s political setup does not reward competence, integrity, or visionary leadership. People like Obi, Omoyele Sowore, and other vibrant alternatives threaten the entrenched interests that benefit from chaos. The system is designed to recycle power among familiar faces, ensuring that reformers remain on the sidelines.

The best shot Obi had at the presidency was in 2023, if the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) had honoured its zoning arrangement and allowed the South to produce its candidate. With widespread grassroots support, especially among the youth, he could have mounted a strong challenge. But the PDP abandoned zoning, and Atiku Abubakar seized the ticket. That single miscalculation fractured the party and created the space for Tinubu’s victory.

Now, with the PDP belatedly considering zoning to the South in 2027, Obi’s chances are ironically slimmer. The North’s political heavyweights appear increasingly dissatisfied with Tinubu, but their discontent does not automatically translate into support for Obi. If anything, they would rather rally behind a northern candidate or back an alliance that preserves their influence.

The only miracle that could revive Obi’s prospects is a grand sacrifice from Atiku and other northern aspirants in the PDP and African Democratic Congress (ADC), if they shelve their ambitions and support Obi on a “one-term” pact. That would be the only logical strategy to consolidate the North’s desire for change with the South’s hunger for reform. But knowing the Nigerian political class, such selflessness is a fairy tale. Atiku has spent decades chasing the presidency and is unlikely to step aside for Obi.

Painful as it is to admit, Obi may have to consider a different path. A bold, almost unthinkable move would be to accept the role of running mate to Atiku under the ADC. This may sound like a downgrade, but strategically, it could produce the numbers needed to unseat the All Progressives Congress (APC). Northern voters disenchanted with Tinubu could throw their weight behind Atiku, while Obi’s “Obidient Movement” and supporters in the South and parts of the West could tilt the balance.

For this to work, Obi must have a frank conversation with his movement, explaining why compromise is sometimes the only path to power. His followers must understand that clinging to idealism without winning power only entrenches the status quo. If Obi truly cares about Nigeria’s survival, then offering his goodwill in exchange for broader national change is a sacrifice worth making.

One thing is certain: the PDP, even with zoning, cannot defeat Tinubu with a southern candidate in 2027. Not even the return of former President Goodluck Jonathan would change that calculus. The Nigerian political machine is too complex for sentiment alone.

At the end of the day, this is not about Obi, Atiku, or Tinubu, it is about Nigeria. May the country, battered as it is, somehow emerge victorious in this endless struggle for competent leadership.

Humble opinion of Victor Ernest Osong.

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