Ahead of Nigeria’s 2027 general elections, anxiety is spreading among electorates, political observers and citizens.
The ongoing wave of defections by governors, senators and other key politicians from opposition parties to the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, has triggered fears that Africa’s largest democracy may be drifting toward a one-party state.
DAILY POST observed that in recent months, the nation’s political terrain has witnessed a dramatic shift.
Governors Peter Mbah of Enugu State and Douye Diri of Bayelsa State recently dumped the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) for the APC, barely days apart.
Their defection pushed the ruling party’s control to 25 of Nigeria’s 36 states, leaving the PDP with 8, the Labour Party, LP, All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA and New Nigeria Peoples Party, NNPP, with one state each.
This development has fueled growing concern that the ruling party under President Bola Tinubu may face little or no resistance in the 2027 polls.
History repeating itself?
For many Nigerians, what is happening today feels eerily familiar. In a bid to return the country to democracy, the Abacha military junta in 1996 allowed the formation of five political parties to replace the previously existing two: the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the National Republican Convention (NRC), that participated in the annulled June 12, 1993 presidential election conducted by the Babangida regime.
Those new parties: the United Nigeria Congress Party (UNCP), Congress for National Consensus (CNC), Grassroots Democratic Movement (GDM), Democratic Party of Nigeria (DPN) and National Centre Party of Nigeria (NCPN), would later adopt General Sani Abacha as their consensus presidential candidate in 1998.
To many political historians and political observers, what is playing out today, a steady collapse of opposition and the consolidation of power around a single ‘politician’, bears a striking resemblance to that era.
PDP in disarray as opposition weakens
The PDP, once Nigeria’s dominant party, is now battling internal crises and mass defections that have crippled its national structure.
Since the Tinubu administration began in May 2023, the PDP has lost over 15 senators, several house of reps members and about four governors to the APC.
Party leaders are struggling to hold the centre together amid growing disillusionment within their ranks.
Once seen as the pillars of Nigeria’s multiparty democracy, the four major opposition parties today appear to be shadows of their former selves.
The Labour Party is drowning in a sea of internal disputes, with multiple factions and self-acclaimed chairmen laying claim to its leadership.
The once-dominant Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is locked in a web of court injunctions and bitter internal feuds that have crippled its structure nationwide.
The All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), which should have stood as a regional counterforce, seems to have lost its ideological voice, with its only governor, Prof. Charles Soludo of Anambra State, openly backing President Tinubu’s second-term bid.
Meanwhile, the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) drifts in uncertainty, neither here nor there, its relevance fading amid leadership tussles and political compromises.
NNPP National Chairman, Agbo Major in an exclusive interview with DAILY POST, decried what he described as “a deliberate attempt by the APC to kill opposition voices in Nigeria.”
“Every genuine lover of democracy has every reason to be concerned about what is happening in our dear country,” he said.
“It’s worrisome that we are gradually moving towards what could become a one-party state.
“If one party controls both the legislature and the executive, real democracy becomes impossible. Without strong opposition, those in power have no one to hold them accountable and that’s the danger threatening our democracy today.
“One major problem we have as a nation is that we tend to window-dress our problems rather than tackle them from the roots. Instead of dealing with issues fundamentally, we romance them at the surface level.
“We have long seen this coming. Since 1999, we’ve observed successive governments deliberately taking steps to stifle opposition parties and draw everyone into their fold.
“It’s a dangerous trend we have repeatedly warned about, but in Nigeria, we hardly act until the problem begins to directly confront us and that’s exactly what is happening today.
“Now, the question is: what could we have done differently? One very critical issue is the perks associated with holding political office in Nigeria. The attraction is so high that people can’t resist it. This is why politics here is a do-or-die affair.
“People are willing to bend rules, subvert processes, and even commit atrocities just to win power, not because they want to serve, but because of what they stand to gain.
“In advanced democracies, public office doesn’t come with such juicy benefits, so people don’t have to kill or cheat to get there. But in Nigeria, people see politics as a shortcut to wealth and power, turning into oppressors of the same people who voted them in.
“What happens then is that nobody wants to build a party from scratch. They all want to join already established or ruling parties. It’s a trend we saw during the PDP era, they kept poaching members from opposition parties, celebrating defections as “successes.” What the APC is doing today is not new. They are following the same dangerous precedent.
“Every well-meaning democrat should be alarmed by this. The strength of any democracy lies in its multiparty nature. If one party controls both the legislature and the executive, real democracy becomes impossible. Without strong opposition, those in power have no one to hold them accountable and that’s the danger threatening our democracy today.
“With the defections from Enugu, Bayelsa and other states, we are witnessing what I call ‘food is ready politicians’. I honestly do not understand what a sitting governor hopes to gain by defecting to another party when his followers are not even in agreement with him. It’s a tragedy for our democracy,” Agbo added.
Similarly, Senate Minority Leader Abba Moro had during a plenary session warned that “the continued defection of opposition lawmakers to the ruling party is unhealthy for democracy.”
He cautioned Senate President Godswill Akpabio that history would judge leaders who allow democratic institutions to weaken under their watch.
Nigeria’s current political situation mirrors the nation’s past.
During the Second Republic (1979–1983), the ruling National Party of Nigeria (NPN) under President Shehu Shagari governed only 7 of the 19 states. Yet, opposition parties such as the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), Nigerian People’s Party (NPP), People’s Redemption Party (PRP), and Great Nigeria People’s Party (GNPP) controlled the rest, ensuring vibrant debate and accountability in governance.
Many fear that balance is disappearing today.
‘Mass defection self-interest, not ideology’ – APC chieftain
Not everyone sees the defections as a threat to democracy.
Some insiders within the APC have argued that politicians are merely seeking “relevance and survival” ahead of 2027.
A former governorship aspirant in Benue State and APC chieftain, Okpokwu Ogenyi, described many of the defectors as opportunists.
“Some of them are not joining because of ideology or performance. Take Enugu State for example, the governor has been doing fairly well, yet he still crossed over. It’s purely self-interest,” he told DAILY POST.
“I want to say clearly that Nigeria can never become a one-party state again, because the nation is bigger than any individual,” he stated.
Ogenyi added that while some defections are driven by political survival, others are motivated by genuine support for President Tinubu’s vision.
“Some join because they believe in the President’s focus on infrastructure and human capital development. But my advice is simple, if you believe in your party’s ideology, stay and build it. Mass defections could create internal crises, even within the APC.
“Take, for instance, the Governor of Enugu State who recently left the PDP for the APC. His defection was not necessarily about ideology but about personal conviction.
“Mr. President’s administration is focused on human capital development, improved infrastructure, and other progressive policies but not everyone joining is driven by these same principles.
“Let me also say that there are some individuals within the APC who are the ones encouraging others to defect.
“They spread rumors about people leaving their parties when there’s no real reason to do so, often because of personal grievances. Some defect purely to protect their political interests, while others join to support the good work the president is doing,” he stated.
PDP reaping what it sowed – APC supporters
Others, however, believe the PDP is merely tasting its own medicine.
A member of the APC and former House of Representatives aspirant in Iyara, Ijumu LGA of Kogi State, Dada Akinfemi, told DAILY POST that the PDP “laid the foundation for what it is now reaping.”
“This is karma at work,” Akinfemi said.
“When the PDP was in power under Obasanjo, they controlled 21 of 36 states and even boasted of ruling Nigeria for 100 years. They crippled opposition voices then and today they are facing the same fate.
“The lesson here is that no party should abuse its power because political tables turn faster than expected,” he added.
Many Nigerians believe the current wave of defections to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is not just a coincidence but a well-orchestrated political strategy aimed at silencing dissent and entrenching one-party dominance ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Their fears are not without reason. Adding to the unease are comments made by Senate President Godswill Akpabio during a reception for defecting Akwa Ibom Governor Umo Eno, where he boldly declared that “President Tinubu will secure 99.9% of the votes in 2027.”
To many observers, such statements reflect a deeper political reality, one where opposition parties are being systematically weakened, co-opted or dismantled by threats or favours.
The statement drew sharp criticism from legal experts and democracy advocates.
According to human rights activist and lawyer, Barrister David Mike, such remarks are “undemocratic and dangerous” coming from the head of the legislature, which is constitutionally meant to check, not cheer, the executive.
“Statements like that signal complacency and the death of competitive politics.
“It’s alarming because even the election that brought him to power remains questionable in the eyes of many Nigerians. A Senate President should be strengthening checks and balances, not making prophetic declarations about vote margins,” Mike said.
‘Tinubu has crippled opposition’ – Nigerians
Haruna Dogo, a youth leader of the PDP in Kaduna, also voiced frustration over the mass defections.
Dogo said, “Tinubu has crippled the opposition because he knows his performance so far has been disappointing.
“Instead of improving governance, he is focusing on weakening political opponents to secure 2027.
“But Nigerians are watching, hunger, insecurity and unemployment have worsened. No amount of defections will erase that reality.”
On his part, former APC senatorial aspirant in Benue South, Madaki described the situation as a disaster.
He told DAILY POST that, “Possibly. It is the worst form of state capture imaginable. And a shame really because the APC government is a total disaster. Those decamping are seeking refuge.”
Other political leaders such as former Senate President Adolphus Wabara, now Chairman of the PDP Board of Trustees, said the defections have confirmed his earlier warning that the APC was pursuing a one-party agenda.
“The recent defections are part of a coordinated plan to turn Nigeria into a one-party state.
“But in 2027, it will be impoverished Nigerians, not the governors, who will decide,” Wabara said.
Similarly, Catholic Bishops in Nigeria have expressed alarm over what they called the “suppression of opposition voices.”
In a communiqué issued at the end of their recent plenary in Akwa Ibom State, signed by Archbishop Lucius Ugorji and Bishop Donatus Ogun, the bishops warned that “Nigeria is gradually sliding into a one-party state, which is unhealthy for democracy.”
History repeats: When Babangida introduced a two-party state
Interestingly, the debate over political dominance in Nigeria isn’t new.
In the late 1980s, Military President Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida (IBB) introduced a two-party system as part of his political transition program, arguing that it would promote national unity and curb the ethnic and regional divisions that had crippled earlier republics.
Babangida believed that a two-party structure would: eliminate political fragmentation along tribal lines, foster national integration and simplify governance and strengthen democracy.
Under his directive, two parties were officially created by law: the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the National Republican Convention (NRC), described by Babangida as “a little to the left and a little to the right.”
However, critics then argued that the move was an attempt to control the political process and limit true pluralism.
The two-party experiment collapsed after the annulment of the June 12, 1993 presidential election, widely regarded as Nigeria’s freest and fairest poll.
Today, more than three decades later, Nigeria once again stands at a crossroads, with fears that democratic plurality may be slipping away under the weight of one-party dominance.
To many Nigerians, the fear is not just about who wins in 2027, but about what remains of democracy when dissent fades, opposition weakens and power becomes self-sustaining.
For now, 2027 is heavily pregnant and no one knows what it will deliver.