2027 Gambit: Is A Coalition The light At The End Of The Tunnel Or The Ramblings Of Drunken Men

During a political stakeholders meeting in March 2025, former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar announced that he, alongside the 2023 presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Peter Obi and former Governor of Kaduna State, Nasir El-Rufai have kick-started a coalition to defeat President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 election.

Atiku’s statement confirmed the opposition’s determination to go all out to unseat the president in the upcoming election.

Among those present were Peter Obi’s representative, Yunusa Tanko; Babachir David Lawal; Nasir El-Rufai; Segun Sowunmi; Soni Monidafe; Salihu Lukman, Peter Ameh; and Adamu Maina Waziri.

The announcement has being greeted with various reaction from political stakeholders, with some insisting that it would not see the light of day as those involved were coming together out of selfish motives.

In one of his many speeches, Atiku had likened the coalition to a fast-moving train “with multiple stops to bring on board Nigerians of all shades,” in the quest for good governance.

At the helm of the coalition is El-Rufai, whom many political observers believe is motivated by a personal vendetta against Tinubu, stemming from his disappointment over not being appointed to a ministerial position.

El-Rufai recently defected to the Social Democratic Party (SDP), citing the All Progressives leadership style as the reason for leaving the party.

“Developments in the last two years confirm that those who currently control and run the APC do not desire to acknowledge, much less address, the party’s unhealthy situation. I have raised concerns in private and, more recently, in public regarding the party’s capricious trajectory. Therefore, at this point in my political journey, I have come to the conclusion that I must seek another political platform to pursue the progressive values I cherish”, he had said

After his defection, El-Rufai called on opposition leaders, including Atiku, Obi, and Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), to unite.

Atiku obviously heeded El-Rufai call as he has indicated his desire to join forces with other opposition leaders.

However, the former vice president desire might not come so easily as governors in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) have turned down the proposition.

Rising from their meeting in Ibadan the PDP Governors’ Forum, chaired by Bauchi State Governor Bala Mohammed, announced that the party would not participate in any coalition or merger.

He stated, “Noting the nationwide speculations about possible merger of political parties, groups and/or associations, the Forum resolved that the PDP will not join any coalition or merger.

“However, the PDP as a major opposition party welcomes any party, persons or groups that are willing to join it with a view to wrestling power and enthroning good leadership in 2027.”

Speaking in an exclusive interview with Naijaonpoint, elder statesman and former National Vice Chairman (North-West) of the PDP, Bode George, has condemned the proposed coalition insisting that efforts should be channeled towards resolving the crisis in the party.

Do you think a coalition led by Atiku and other opposition leaders to defeat Tinubu in the 2027 election is a step in the right direction?

“They went to visit Baba Buhari. Is Buhari a member of PDP? What is the relationship between Atiku, his team and Buhari apart from being from the same region?

“What is the essence? You benefited from our party. You are talking about mega. You have not discussed the mega with your party.

“The only political party in this country that is the Oak Tree, In Yoruba land they call it the Iroko Tree. You are going around saying you should have a mega party. Let them come and join us.

“We are the only political party in this country. I challenge anybody that has structures.

“What I mean by structure, National structure, State structure, Zonal structure. What I mean you have a national secretary, national treasurer, national woman leader, youth leader

“Who is the national secretary of APC, who is the national treasurer, the national organising secretary. All these structures.

“And go to all the states if you will find one person, Nobody. It is owned by one individual. What Atiku is doing itself is self aggrandizement. What are you looking for under Baba Buhari is he a member of our party.

“Mega, Mega, Mega, No, sir. And the doctrine, section 7, subsection 3c of our constitution is very clear. There will be rotation and zoning of party positions and electing position. That is the way it’s stated in the constitution and it has not changed.

“The last time we went to convention, they manipulated it because is Buhari from the south west, is Buhari from the south east or is he from the south south? He is from Katsina. So the next 8 years should be in the south.

“Most of those people you are even talking about left from PDP to outside. So to me It is absolutely nonsensical attitude.

“It’s all right. I can tell Atiku that because I am older than him. Let him sit down and think. What is it? What are we looking for in life? This year you will be 79. In 2027 you will be 81.

“The next time any northerner we will support, I will lead that team will be in 2031 by the grace of God if I am still alive.

“When you start manipulating things, that’s what you find. A divided house will remain a defeated house.

“I remember I was deputy national chairman South when this forum was formed and was led by Rotimi Amaechi. We listened to them. We consider the national working committee before presenting our memo to the NEC. NEC is the final approval authority outside the National Convention. And after every National Convention, that’s the highest authority.

“So when Wike was talking that they think they have been there, no! They are suggesting, they are not the final authority. They have a right to suggest.

“And what are we looking for in Nigeria for God’s sake. Where is the giant of Africa? Mega party, mega rubbish.

“Let’s sit down and talk about our home. If your house is leaking, do you abandon your house and go and be a tenant? Do you? Do you repair it?

What do you think the PDP can do to strengthen its position as a major opposition party in Nigeria?

“We have started, the journey has started, the governors have proposed, NWC will look at it and bring the final draft for consideration to the final approving authority which is the National Executive Committee, NEC. That is what they can do. The communique issued by the governors is not a finality. No, it’s a suggestion. Look, when I was there, by 1999, we were the first to be elected as managers of the party. As we went on, I realized that there was need to have a lobby group. I started it me, Bode George started the G-84, we used to call it.

“G-84 members were people who are ex-official, deputy chairman, deputy this, deputy that you know, who don’t have a daily input into the management of the party.

“They were a formidable group that can lobby I established it to make sure that our decisions will meet, we will discuss, we will do this.

“So when the National Chairman goes to the NEC meeting and reads out all the the memoranda, these people have a free knowledge of what is coming and they will say yes or say no. That’s how you manage. That’s a simple management. It’s not for me. What was I looking for? To be president, to be this or that. When they asked me. When it was the turn of Southwest to become National Chairman, one of our leaders scuttled it and sent the leadership to another zone. When it was now time for us to contest, I said I was going to contest, I remember that night ask Akpabio and Senator Olujimi they came to my campaign office, appealed to me that the governors sent them to come and beg me so that it would be rancour free and I should not protest.

“A day before the convention, I said, okay, I’ve heard. They have all ganged up, but my northern friends, all the northern delegates have told me that baba come to the field. Let’s test it.

“I discussed with my wife, I said, look, this is the situation overnight we prayed and I said, okay, I will withdraw. I didn’t go to the field. If I had gone to the field, that would have been fracas.

“I didn’t go to the field. It was seamless. it went freely.

“From that convention hall, Wike, Secondus, all the leaders from Rivers State came to my house. to thank me. See the way the whole thing ended, I did not fight it. I am still alive.

“And I fear nobody. I would tell the truth that God has kept me to 80. What am I looking for? Why am I afraid? If I go today, I go.

“God said, look, he’s giving us three scores and ten, guaranteed, that’s 70 years.

“So, where is the fear. Anybody after 70. You are already in the departure lounge.

“You have collected your body pass. All is telling you, you don’t know when you call your flight.

“So tell the truth so that the younger generations can benefit and let’s turn this country around.

“I came from a very politically potent family. My great-granduncle was Herbert Macaulay. In 1922, he was the first Nigerian politician to establish a political party. Would I now be part of those who would destroy it. No. No. Let them go and sit down Wike should sit down somewhere. Akpabio too should sit down.

“Atiku with his mega or no mega is destroying himself. Let them go and sit down allow the party to run.”

Sir do you sincerely believe that if PDP put its house in order it will successfully wrestle power from the APC.

“I guarantee you. Nigerians are now more educated than before. Let the will of the people prevail, it’s only four years. Let the will of the people prevail.

“If you manipulate results and you think you have won, you are deceiving yourselves.

“There is need to clean out the present electoral process. It’s a complete nonsense.Absolutely rubbish. I’m a computer engineer. How can you say you have a glitch on the day of election ?

“Look at the Natasha case, what the heck is going on. Let me tell you any country, any nation that has no regard or respect for women the economic indices, the economic development of that nation would never be okay.

“As quiet as the women are, they are the embellishment for economic growth .who doesn’t have a mother, who doesn’t have a wife,

“who doesn’t have a daughter, why are you treating a young girl like that? Why for what?

“Sit here, don’t sit there now became an issue? Is that why we sent them there.

“I am talking directly to Akpabio, He is my political son. He should listen because there will be a day after that job that he’s doing. Let them wake up. Is Obasanjo still there today, is Babangida still there.

How Past Coalitions Played Out

Nigeria’s history has seen various party alliances with varying degrees of success. In 1964, the United Progressive Grand Alliance (UPGA) emerged as a coalition of opposition parties, comprising the Action Group (AG) and the National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons (NCNC), with the aim of challenging the dominant Northern People’s Congress (NPC). However, the alliance ultimately fell short of its objectives.

However, in 1979 an alliance between the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) and the Nigeria Peoples Party (NPP), enabled the NPN to secure a parliamentary majority and form a government.

In 2003, opposition parties like the Alliance for Democracy (AD) and the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) attempted to form a united front against the ruling PDP, but their efforts were unsuccessful.

A landmark moment came in 2013 when several opposition parties, including the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), and others, merged to form the All Progressives Congress (APC). This coalition achieved a historic victory in 2015, defeating the PDP and ending their 16-year rule. Since then, attempts to replicate this success have been made, but none have achieved the same level of impact.

Conclusion

The coalition which eventually ended PDP’s 15 years reign in power involved different political parties coming together to form a single entity.

However, Atiku and his allies currently favour a coalition model, as opposition parties so far do not seem interested in the merger.

This approach might not necessarily create the desired ripple strong enough to cause an effect in the 2027 election.