2027: Northern politicians plot Goodluck Jonathan’s return as ‘compromise candidate’

As Nigeria inches closer to the 2027 general elections, political maneuvering has intensified across the country, particularly in the North, where influential figures are quietly strategizing to reclaim political dominance and counter President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s potential second-term bid.

Insider reports suggest that rising discontent with Tinubu’s style of governance, marked by alleged marginalization, economic hardship, and widening insecurity, is fuelling a coordinated effort to unseat him.

Within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), cracks are deepening, and northern leaders are exploring alternative paths to regain control of the presidency.

However, the longstanding unwritten North-South zoning arrangement remains a complicating factor.

Following the 2023 elections, which marked a transition of presidential power from North to South, there is a widespread belief that the South should retain the presidency until 2031.

This expectation has put northern political ambitions in a bind, as any premature challenge to the power rotation may alienate the influential southern electorate.

President Tinubu appears keenly aware of this political dynamic and has since embarked on a calculated consolidation of his southern base.

A wave of defections from the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the APC suggests a deliberate effort to unify the southern region behind his 2027 bid.

While the South West remains his stronghold, he has intensified political outreach in the South-South and South-East, mirroring the strategy employed by former President Goodluck Jonathan in 2011—winning the South outright while targeting Christian-majority zones in the North.

Despite the optics of national unity, Nigerian Tribune reports that northern dissatisfaction with the Tinubu administration is palpable.

Key figures cite perceived exclusion from key appointments, policy failures, and insecurity as reasons for their growing opposition.

Political actors including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, ex-Kaduna governor Nasir el-Rufai, former SGF Babachir Lawal, and elder statesman Hakeem Baba-Ahmed are reportedly engaged in quiet consultations to form a formidable coalition ahead of 2027.

However, their greatest hurdle remains identifying a presidential candidate who can unify opposition forces without threatening the North’s long-term political calculations.

Amid this political calculus, the name of former President Goodluck Jonathan has resurfaced as a potential consensus candidate.

Though constitutionally limited to a single four-year term if re-elected, Jonathan is seen by some northern strategists as a “bridge candidate”—southern enough to maintain zoning integrity, yet widely respected in the North for his peaceful handover of power in 2015 and post-office diplomacy.

Backing Jonathan could serve dual interests: it allows the North to peacefully transition Tinubu out of power while setting the stage for a return to the presidency in 2031.

In addition, Jonathan’s potential comeback resonates strongly in the South-South and parts of the South-East, where many believe his 2015 ouster was unjust. A second term is framed by his supporters as a chance to finish an interrupted legacy.

Although former Anambra governor Peter Obi remains a favourite among urban youth and progressive voters, largely due to his 2023 campaign under the Labour Party, he poses a dilemma for northern power brokers.

If elected, Obi could constitutionally serve two terms, delaying the North’s return to the presidency until 2035. Furthermore, some in the North see him as lacking broad national appeal and being ideologically rigid.

For northern politicians, rallying behind Jonathan is less about sentiment and more about strategic realignment. His candidacy could disrupt Tinubu’s momentum without permanently ceding influence.

Younger northern aspirants or controversial figures would also benefit, as a single Jonathan term provides breathing room to rebrand and prepare for a 2031 showdown.

However, several challenges remain. First, Jonathan has not publicly expressed interest in returning to active politics, preferring to maintain his post-presidency image as a regional peacemaker.

If he is to return, it must be under a platform capable of winning nationally—likely requiring a coalition between PDP, LP, and other smaller parties. That would demand compromise and coordination across deeply divided opposition lines.

Secondly, President Tinubu is no political novice. As an incumbent with control over the APC, significant financial resources, and federal leverage, he remains a formidable opponent.

While a direct northern challenge to Tinubu in 2027 may provoke political backlash and disrupt Nigeria’s fragile power balance, backing Jonathan offers an elegant workaround.

For the North, it keeps the door open for 2031. For the South, it reclaims what many view as a prematurely ended presidency. And for the opposition, it presents a viable candidate capable of bridging Nigeria’s divided electorate.